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XE Market Analysis: Asia - Oct 14, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was mostly firmer in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, though was generally inside of narrow trading ranges versus major currencies. EUR-USD found support under 1.2650, while USD-JPY struggled on moves over 107.00. Cable moved down under 1.5905, while another bashing in the oil market took USD-CAD to trend highs over 1.1270. Read more

The message of the bond market

By: New_Deal_democrat

Stock prices are making a nice downward spike. Bond yields are also declining smartly. While a lot of energy has been spent trying to decipher the message of stocks, what is the message of bonds? The answer, I believe, is both good news and bad news. Here's the bullet-point version: since bond yields are a long leading indicator, and stocks a short leading indicator, bonds are looking further out into the future an air pocket in stock prices is not unexpected, since for the last year, stocks have gotten ahead of corporate profits, whereas over the longer term, the two tend to converge declining bond yields in a very low inflation environment such as now foretell weakness in the near future (i.e., over the next 12 months or so) declining bond yields - if significant enough - foretell a rebound in activity further in the future, i.e., more than 12-18 months away whether the shorter term weakness translates into an actual downturn is usually forecast by a significant increase in the spreads between corporate bonds and treasuries spreads have not widened significantly to date, so no downturn in the near term is forecast, but on the other hand bond yields have not declined significantly enough to suggest a strong rebound thereafter Now let's take a more detailed look. As I've pointed out in prior commentary, the bond market's relationship to stock prices changed since 1998. Read more

Russia: The Next Big Problem Economy

By: HaleStewart

Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs coined the term BRICs in 2001 – a term which is an amalgamation of “Brazil, Russia, India and China.” Although these countries have had strong rates of economic growth from 2001 to the recession of 2009-2009, the pace of growth has meaningfully declined since. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Oct 14, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar rebounded from a bout of losses on weak European data with drop in German ZEW investor confidence and unexpectedly sharp deceleration in U.K. CPI to a five-year low of 1.2% y/y. The data boosted the relative attractiveness of the greenback, which is now above the levels seen ahead of the FOMC minutes release last Wednesday. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Oct 14, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar dropped quiet sharply in early Asia, subsequently recouping some of the lost ground but remaining net lower. EUR-USD surged by around 80 pips to a peak of 1.2768, breaching the 20-day moving average at 1.2725 on route, before settling to the low 1.27s. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Oct 13, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar is started on a soft footing, having given part of its advance seen Friday against the euro and sterling while dropping to a four-week low against the outperforming yen. Trading conditions were thin today in the absence of the U.S. and Canada for public holidays. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Oct 13, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar is starting the week on a softer footing, having given back most of its advance seen Friday against the euro and sterling while dropping to a four-week low against the outperforming yen. Trading conditions have and will remain thin today in the absence of Japan, the U.S. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Oct 13, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar is starting the week on a softer footing, having given back most of its advance seen Friday against the euro and sterling while dropping to a four-week low against the outperforming yen. Trading conditions have and will remain thin today in the absence of Japan, the U.S. Read more

International Economic Preview For the Week of October 12-17

By: HaleStewart

The following economic releases will have a strong impact on the markets in the coming week. First off, any news from the EU or the four largest EU economies (Germany, France, Spain and Italy) will be important. The weakening EU situation is one of the reasons for the “risk off” trade over the last 2-3 months. Read more

Weekly Indicators: no immediate worries for the US domestic economy edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

Monthly data for September was sparse. Both export and import prices declined m/m, and are slightly negative YoY. Jolts jobs data was mixed. There is exactly one business cycle top in this data series. In that top, hires turned down first, about 2 years before the recession (hires were down this month), then quits, about 1 year before (quits were essentially unchanged this month), then job openings, about 8 months before (openings have been surging all year), and layoffs increase, also about 8 months before (down this month). Read more

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