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US gas prices have (probably) bottomed

By: New_Deal_democrat

A little over three weeks ago I wrote that http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2015/01/the-bottom-in-gas-prices-is-close.html the bottom in gas prices was close. The primary reason was seasonality: as shown in the graph below in 8 of the last 10 years, gas prices have bottomed between mid November and early February: Since the actual dates aren't obvious in the above graph, here's the list: January 2005 December 2005 February 2007 December 2008 December 2011 December 2012 November 2013 Typically, by mid-February, refineries are changing over to their more expensive warm weather blend, and driving miles begins to increase. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Feb 02, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD crept higher, reaching 1.1354 but remained she of Friday's peak at 1.1363. A well informed source cited by the Tages Anzeiger newspaper said the SNB has initiated a "soft floor" in EUR-CHF at 1.05-1.10, which helps explain the gains the cross has seen over the last several trading days and may help support EUR-USD, at lease for now. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Feb 02, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD was trading a near net unchanged levels heading into the European open, sitting just above 1.1300 having left a range of 1.1278-1.1313 in the interim. USD-JPY recovered to the mid-to-upper 117s after a sharp drop in early New Zealand trade to a low of 116.64 (which apparently traded even though the low on our chart is only 116.94). Read more

International Economic Preview For the Week of February 2-6

By: HaleStewart

            The following economic releases will have a disproportionate impact on the markets in the coming week. Monday Read more

Weekly Indicators: consumer confidence soars, housing improves edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

In the rear view mirror, Q4 GDP grew at +2.6% annualized, a deceleration from Q2 and Q3. Monthly December reports reported in the last week included two series showing soaring consumer confidence, improved new home sales, a moderation in the increase in home prices, positive and increased Chicago manufacturing, and a significant increase in unit labor costs. Read more

US Equity Market Review For the Week of January 26-30: We're Getting Defensive, Edition

By: HaleStewart

One of the biggest problems with earnings season is that so much data is released in so short a time, it seems impossible to digest all the information in any meaningful way. However, now that we’re about halfway through, we can note a few trends, starting with the strong dollar and its negative impact on performance. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Jan 30, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was mixed in N.Y. trade on Friday, though a disappointing Q4 GDP print sent yields and Wall Street lower again. Despite that, EUR-USD headed down to the 1.12 handle, following reports that Greece's new government may not cooperate with the troika. Read more

International Economic Week in Review: Just How Strong Is the US Economy?

By: HaleStewart

While this weekly column usually looks at a number of countries, this week will be different. The general tenor of economic news from most large OECD countries is at best concerning: the EU is grappling with deflation, Japan’s experiment with Abenomics is struggling, Australia’s transition away from a raw material exporting economy is having problems and now Canada’s reliance on oil exports has led their central bank to cut rates. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Jan 30, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar came under broader pressure. EUR-USD worked higher, to the 1.1350 area despite a -0.6% y/y reading in Eurozone HICP in preliminary January data. A dip in Eurozone unemployment to 11.4% from 11.5% helped offset, while the market is also aware that the ECB's QE program, designed to eradicate deflation, doesn't commence until March. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Jan 30, 2015

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD has traded a narrow path in Asia, holding in the low-to-mid 1.13s and remaining well within yesterday's range. 'Grexit' concerns have come off the boil with the new Greek government pledging to look for common ground with the Troika. Focus now is on Eurozone CPI data. Read more

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