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The dollar weakened overall into the N.Y. open on Monday, seeing the DXY slip to a low of 89.82 in afternoon trade. The FX market was largely quiet however, with narrow trading ranges seen in the major dollar pairings. Wall Street surged higher on eased trade tensions, as Trump economic advisor Kudlow sounded optimistic. Read more
OVERVIEW US Dollar softer as trade tensions remain front and center. German exports plunge as global trade concerns rise. British Pound is supported by house price data and rate hike bets. Canadian Dollar firms on NAFTA optimism. Turkish Lira falls to fresh record lows. Read more
The dollar has been trading neutrally versus its main counterparts. EUR-USD has been plying a narrow path around the 1.2270 mark, consolidating Friday's post-U.S. jobs report gains, which lifted the pair from the low 1.2200s. USD-JPY has been steady, holding near 107.00. Read more
ISM released their latest manufacturing and non-manufacturing reports this week. The manufacturing number was down 1.5 but is still a very heathy 59.3. New orders were also off, but they are also very strong (61.9). However, the real story in this report were the anecdotal comments, which contained negative information about the tariffs: “Supply constraints, extended lead times, capacity constraints [and the like], particularly in the electronics components markets, continue to frustrate and drain needed resources, have delayed production schedules and, in some cases, caused missed or delayed sales opportunities.” (Computer & Electronic Products) “International demand is strong for our products in all regions. Read more
This week, there were two key speeches by Federal Reserve governors. The most important was from new Fed President Jerome Powell. I have previously described him as a technocrat; his latest speech further solidifies that description. Like most Fed governors, he believes the labor market is the single-best indicator of the economy’s health. Read more
March data started out with a weakly positive jobs gain and a flat unemployment rate. Wages improved overall, but did not gain YoY for non-managerial workers. Motor vehicle sales improved. Both ISM manufacturing and services indexes decelerated but remained strongly positive. February construction spending was barely above flat. Read more
OVERVIEW Commodity currencies are trading lower as the US Administration considers new $100 billion tariffs on Chinese imports. US non-farm payroll data is expected to show another solid growth. USD/DXY Index currently holding to close the week on a high for the second successive week. HIGHLIGHT The New Zealand Dollar is the biggest loser as commodity currencies come under pressure once again. Read more
OVERVIEW Risk appetite recovers amid a calmer view of trade war risks. Stock markets rally strongly, European markets up over 2%. GBP under pressure from weak services data. EUR also under pressure from softer data. US trade deficit hits 9.5 year high. HIGHLIGHT The Dollar is rallying across the board today versus the Japanese Yen where it reached a 3-week high, bolstered by a rebound in global stock markets and signs of the US looking to resolve a trade dispute with China. Read more
OVERVIEW A cautious tone came down upon the financial markets today as China responded to the US with trade tariffs on US goods. The construction sector in the UK literally froze in March as the beast from the East put this sector into contractionary territory in March. Inflation in Europe ticked higher, while the unemployment rate dropped. US service sector activity slows albeit from buoyant levels. HIGHLIGHT China struck back in the looming trade war with the US by imposing a 25% tariff on 106 US goods, with soybeans being the focus. US DOLLAR The Dollar continues to trade in a quiet range against the Euro as the service sector PMI reading came in weaker than expected at 58.8 from 59.5 previously. BRITISH POUND The Pound continues to prove resilient as the market shrugged off the weaker than expected construction data in the expectation that activity will bounce back again in April. EURO Unemployment in the EU dropped to 8.5% while the inflation rate rose from 1.1% to 1.4%. CANADIAN DOLLAR The Canadian Dollar is weaker against its US counterpart, pulling back from an earlier five-week high amid rising trade tensions. Read more
. However, the real story in this report were the anecdotal comments, which contained negative information about the tariffs:
“Supply constraints, extended lead times, capacity constraints [and the like], particularly in the electronics components markets, continue to frustrate and drain needed resources, have delayed production schedules and, in some cases, caused missed or delayed sales opportunities.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
“International demand is strong for our products in all regions.&p[images][0]=http://xecommunityassets.s3.amazonaws.com/Employment_0.png){kind=link}
