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XE Market Analysis: Europe - Jul 16, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has remained firm in the wake of Fed' Yellen's slightly less dovish tone during her testimony yesterday. EUR-USD edged out a new low of 1.3556, which is the lowest rate seen since Jun-18. The T-note over Bund yield differential has remained steady around 133 bp, which is down about 5 bp from last week's major-cycle peak. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Jul 15, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar moved broadly higher in N.Y. trade on Monday, led initially by mixed retail sales N.Y. Fed index, and softer import prices. Later, the market appeared to have taken Fed chief Yellen's testimony as a bit less dovish, as Treasury yields moved modestly higher, taking the greenback with it. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Jul 15, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD tested below 1.36 on the coattails of a sharp EUR-GBP drop following the much stronger than expected U.K. CPI release, while German ZEW data subsequently came in below the median forecast. A sharp drop in the shares of Portugal's Banco Santo Espirito, which was the bank at the centre of last Thursday's Eurozone fracas, also generated bearish fodder for the euro, though EUR-USD managed to recover the 1.36 handle after trading to 1.3587. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Jul 15, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

USD-JPY edged out a five-day high of 101.64 after the BoJ nudged down its GDP projection to 1.0% from 1.1% for the current fiscal year in what was an otherwise featureless pre-Europe session in Asia. Follow-through yen selling was limited, however, as the BoJ also refrained from trimming its inflation forecast, which should prevent markets from speculating that more easing measures are in the pipeline over the coming months, in line with the message from BoJ-speak of late. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Jul 14, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

Yet another sleepy FX session in N.Y. on Monday, with tired ranges holding up in all major dollar pairings. There was no data to provide direction, though overall, the greenback got a minor boost from a strong Wall Street rally, and marginally higher Treasury yields. Read more

It's Amazing How Low Global Interest Rates Are

By: HaleStewart

Below are two charts from the St. Louis Fed's FRED data system. They contain the 10-year yield of government bonds for the following countries: Germany, France, the UK, Canada, the US, Japan and Australia. All show the following two points: The histrically low level of interest rates None of these countries is looking at any meaningful inflationary pressure. Hale Stewart is a former bond broker who has been writing about economics and financial markets since 2006 on the Bonddad Blog. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Jul 14, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar dipped versus the euro while gaining against the yen on the axis of a EUR-JPY rally, which recovered most of last Thursday's decline as the episode of Portuguese contagion proved to be a brief affair. The squeeze drove EUR-JPY nearly 50 pips higher in making an intraday peak of 138.41, helping lift the risk-sensitive USD-JPY (which sank to a 75.0 handle during the height of the Eurozone crisis in 2011) above 101.50, recovering from last week's six-week low at 101.06. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Jul 14, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

Activity has been limited in early week trade. EUR-USD has traded around the 1.3600 market, and USD-JPY around 101.35-40. AUD-USD traded has also been muted, lifting from the 0.9380 area and subsequently settling around 0.9390-9400. The dollar has largely been unaffected by WSJ's Hilsenrath's article on Friday saying that there is an intensifying debate among regional Fed presidents about when to tighten policy. Read more

Weekly Indicators: moderation in several important trends edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

There was no monthly June data of particular note released during the past week. Consumer credit did increase, but at a slower rate when compared with May. The high frequency weekly indicators provide an up-to-this-week snapshot of the economy. The indicators will confirm a trend or indicate a switch in trend well before monthly reports, and are a way to mark one's opinions to market on a regular basis. Read more

International Week in Review: UK Data Disappoints Edition

By: HaleStewart

While the UK has been on an economic tear since the first of the year, this week the UK issued several reports containing weaker data. While both manufacturing and production numbers were up Y/Y, they decreased 1.3% and .7% M/M, respectively. As these charts of the data demonstrate, the monthly decreases should be placed in their short-term perspective of solid growth; these figures most likely represent a slight “cooling off” from a torrid pace of growth since the first of the year. Read more

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