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There were two big stories this week from two of the BRIC countries. Russia continues its cold war replay with the situation in the Ukraine. The Russian central bank has already increased interest rates 150 basis points in a move to stem the rubel's sharp decline. Read more
Monthly news for February included increased retail sales, but with January's number revised downward. Producer prices declined. Consumer sentiment declined, and wholesale inventories increased to the highest level since the end of the last recession. Read more
Dollar/Europe took a hit in early in the N.Y. Friday session, with EUR-USD up at session highs over 1.3935, USD-CHF approaching fresh 2.5 year lows near 0.8700, and cable ramping up to 1.6645. Thursday's meme of reserve related dollar selling remained, though the Ukraine crisis likely played a role as well, as U.S. Read more
The yen has remained bid in a quiet market as stock markets in Europe and Asia came under pressure. Concerns about China slowdown and rising geopolitical tensions ahead of the controversial referendum in Crimea this weekend have been fuelling the risk-off theme. Read more
The yen has remained bid as stock markets in Asia came under pressure. Concerns about China slowdown and the associated corporate default risk theme, alongside the risk of ratcheting geopolitical tensions after the controversial referendum in Crimea this weekend, have been fuelling a risk-off theme. Read more
The dollar was mixed in N.Y. trade, with direction determined largely by fresh angst in the Ukraine. Safe haven dollar demand versus the euro was the major driver behind EUR-USD's drop, with anticipated Crimea annexation giving way to fear of a deeper crisis in Eastern Ukraine. Read more
Over the last month, the economic news from China has been a bit disconcerting. Both of the HSBC surveys have printed in the negative numbers, exports have been off, and now retail sales and industrial production nunbers have disappointed. Let's look at these numbers in more detail to better understand their economic ramifications. Remember that China is attempting to change the composition of its economic growth from an export dependant model to one more evenly balanced between exports and consumer spending. Read more
The USD posted across the board losses, extending recent weakness, aided by AUD-USD gains following a much stronger than expected Australian employment report, a NZD-USD rally after the RBNZ hiked interest rates, and a decline in USD-JPY that was fueled a forecast beating January machine orders data. Read more
The USD posted across the board losses, extending recent weakness, aided by AUD-USD gains following a much stronger than expected Australian employment report, and a NZD-USD rally after the RBNZ hiked interest rates. USD-JPY was also weighed on by January machine orders, which came in above expectations, at +13.4% in January. Read more
Above is a 5-year weekly chart of the EUR/USD. Now that prices have moved through the 1.38 level with conviction, the question becomes what is the next price target? As the above chart shows, a level right below 1.42 holds the next technical resistance level. Hale Stewart is a former bond broker who has been writing about economics and financial markets since 2006 on the Bonddad Blog. Read more
