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Sub- 6% US unemployment rate looks likely in next few months

By: New_Deal_democrat

Back in the 1950s and 1060s, the rule was that an unemployment rate of 6% marked the boundary between a recession and an expansion.  We haven't seen that in 7 years, but it appears likely we will see it within 3 or 4 months. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Jul 09, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD has remained buoyant, reaching a six-day high at 1.3623 and subsequently holding above 1.3610. The firmer tone coincides with a corrective narrowing in the 10-year T-note versus Bund yield differential, which has ebbed back under 135 bp from 138-plus levels. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Jul 08, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

A lack of data, a slide on Wall Street, and lower Treasury yields all combined to weigh on the dollar in N.Y. trade on Tuesday. This said, FX trading ranges were very narrow, and activity overall relatively subdued. As was the case on Monday, EUR-USD traded a 1.3590-1.3600 range through mid morning, before managing 1.3617 highs, and then settling around 1.3610 (20-day moving average). Read more

France: The Sick Man of the EU

By: HaleStewart

The EU economy’s GDP is valued at ~12.7 trillion euros. Two countries – Germany and France – are responsible for about 50% of the economic growth of this region. However, since the end of the recession, the French economy has continued to underperform. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Jul 08, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar remained on a mixed footing, firmer against the EUR and GBP, aided by dovish ECB-speak and a U.K. production data miss, but was lower against a generally firmer yen following a bigger than expected current account surplus out of Japan. There was also divergence among the dollar bloc, with the AUD gaining on firm business confidence data while the CAD continued the decline seen since yesterday's BoC's business outlook survey failed to show any material improvement, which saw Canadian yields dip. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Jul 08, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar remained on a mixed footing, steady against the EUR and GBP in pre-Europe trade in Asia, down against a generally firmer yen following a bigger than expected current account surplus out of Japan. There was also divergence among the dollar bloc, with the AUD gaining on business confidence figure, while the CAD declined after the latest BoC's business outlook survey failed to show any material improvement, which saw Canadian yields dip. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Jul 07, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

Stocks pulled back, and yields faded, along with the greenback in N.Y. trade on Monday. A lack of data had the market focused on the risk backdrop, which was not encouraging, and resulted in the dollar easing versus the yen and major European currencies. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Jul 07, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar traded mixed in early week trade, firming against the EUR, GBP, and other European currencies, but moderately declining versus the JPY while trading near net unchanged against the AUD, as of the late London AM. EUR-USD dipped below last week's post-U.S. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Jul 07, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The USD was mostly firmer in early week trade, up against the EUR, JPY and CAD, though net steady versus the AUD. GS brought forward its forecast for the Fed to hike rates to Q3 2015 from Q1 2016, a consequence of last week's solid payrolls report, which reflects broader market thinking to the benefit of the dollar. Read more

International Week in Review: Solid US Employment Report Edition

By: HaleStewart

The biggest economic news this week by far was the US’ employment report, where the headline number was a net gain of 288,000 jobs. But the good news for the US wasn’t confined to the employment situation. Markit reported a manufacturing reading of 61 and service number of 56; both are some of the highest numbers the US has seen in a few years, as shown in these two graphs: The ISM also had some good headline numbers with a service reading of 56 and manufacturing number of 55.3. Read more

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