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Is The Oil Choke Collar Beginning To Give Way

By: New_Deal_democrat

- by New Deal democrat One of my running themes for the last several years is that we had an Oil shock from 1999 to 2008 that was fully equal to the Oil shock from 1973 to 1980. Except for 2008, the move was gradual enough that it did not actually put us into recesseion, unlike the two sudden disruptions of 1973 and 1979. A couple of years ago, having examined the issue at length, I targeted this year, 2013, as the year that the Oil choke collar might finally begin to give way, due to new oilfields and technologies coming online, use of alternative fuels, improved gas efficiency in vehicles, and conservation. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Oct 10, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

There was cautious optimism that the impasse in D.C. could reach a breakthrough. The WSJ said that conservative Republicans are coming round to the idea of an increase in the U.S. borrowing limit, while the National Journal said that Republicans are on track to approve a debt limit extension - lasting between four and six weeks, which would allow time for subsequent fiscal negotiations. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Oct 10, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

There is mild optimism in early Europe that the impasse in D.C. could reach a breakthrough. The WSJ said that conservative Republicans are coming round to the idea of an increase in the U.S. borrowing limit, while the National Journal said that Republicans are on track to approve a debt limit extension - lasting between four and six weeks, which would allow time for subsequent fiscal negotiations. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Oct 09, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

The FX market was very quiet in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, though the dollar managed modest gains overall. The unit has bounced in European dealings on slightly better risk appetite, and continued the theme through the N.Y. session. Into the FOMC minutes release, EUR-USD hovered just over the 1.3500 mark, as USD-JPY held pnto the 97 handle. Read more

Why Is the Rupee Declining?

By: HaleStewart

An explanation of the rupee’s current drop in value actually begins with the US Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to near zero and engaging in “quantitative easing” – the practice of buying US government bonds. Not only does this practice lower interest rates but it also creates the “portfolio effect” – the act of forcing the investment community as a whole to take on more risk. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Oct 09, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar traded on the firmer side in Asia and demand accelerated in Europe. Overnight, news that Yellen will be nominated later today as Fed Chair triggered a USD-JPY rebound out of 96.80 to 97.45 as risk appetite improved, which also fed a USD-CHF rally. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Oct 09, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

It was another rangebound session for the G10 FX. However, the dollar chopped as sentiment got a boost after U.S. administration officials said Yellen will be nominated as the next Fed Chair later today. The news offset the persisting stalemate in D.C., which showed no signs of breaking as the partial government shutdown extended into the ninth day. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Oct 08, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

FX trade was extremely lethargic in N.Y. on Tuesday, with major dollar pairings idling inside of less than 50 point ranges. The scheduled August trade report was postponed due to the government shutdown, though equities continued their losing ways on fears of an extended shutdown, and the looming debt ceiling. Read more

Euro Area Continues To Show Improvement

By: HaleStewart

The euro region was in a recession from the first quarter of 2012 through the first quarter of 2013 (five quarters total). During this time, the region grew between -.1 and -.5. The recession formally ended in the second quarter of 2013 when it grew at a .3% annual rate. Read more

Review of US Economic Numbers For the Week of September 30 Through October 4

By: HaleStewart

Last week, most of the economic information released about the US dealt with the manufacturing sector. The overall purchasing managers index (or PMI) printed at 56.2 (a reading above 50 indicates expansion). While the new orders sub-category decreased 2.7 points, its total still came in at 60.5 which is a very high level. Read more

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