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New and Existing home sales show that increased interest rates and increasing sales prices are biting

By: New_Deal_democrat

Back in December, I wrote a post here at XE.oom saying that "Interest rates will negatively impact US housing in 2014." http://community.xe.com/forum/xe-market-analysis/rising-interest-rates-will-negatively-impact-us-housing-2014 While building permits, the specific metric I cited in my post, have not turned negative YoY at all in the first three months of 2014, every other US housing metric is now significantly negative. Housing starts are -59,000 YoY and -150,000 from their November 2013 peak. New home sales are also -59,000 YoY and -86,000 from their peak in January of this year. Existing home sales are -370,000 YoY and -790,000 from their peak in July 2014. This morning we had the worst new home sales report since October 2012. So let's take a look at both existing and new home sales for the US. Existing home sales are less important for the economy, but constitute about 90% of the total market. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Apr 23, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar started the N.Y. Wednesday session under modest pressure, though eventually recovered some ground against the euro and CHF. As has been the case this week, ranges remained narrow for the major dollar pairings. USD-JPY found support near the week's low, hovering near 102.20-40 after struggling over 102.50 for several sessions. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Apr 23, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The rebounded after wobbling in the wake of the below-forecast French PMI, with subsequent releases and the pan-Eurozone data superseding market expectations (in both services and manufacturing surveys in the case of the Eurozone). The EUR-USD high so far has been 1.3853, and the Apr-17 peak at 1.3866 looks likely to be tested. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Apr 23, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

A dive in the AUD has been the main event following sub-expectations inflation data out of Australia. The other main data release was the flash estimate of the HSBC-Markit China PMI, which came in as expected at 48.3, though its sub-50.0 reading was still used as an excuse to trigger a second wave of AUD selling and trimming of longs across Asia-Pacific equity markets, which largely gave back intraday gains as a consequence. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Apr 22, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

In-line existing home sales, a better Richmond Fed index, and mostly better than expected corporate earnings re;eases helped the dollar modestly higher on Tuesday. Wall Street and Treasury yields were higher as well. Overall however, the FX market remained narrowly traded, with EUR-USD peaking at 1.324 early in the session, before basing at 1.3790. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Apr 22, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The USD posted moderate losses against most of the other main currencies. Sterling was the relative outperformer as markets are factoring in risk of a relatively hawkish tone in Wednesday's release of the BoE MPC minutes to the early April policy meeting. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Apr 22, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

Narrow ranges prevailed among the main currencies. USD-JPY posted a 102.53-72 range while EUR-USD and Cable flat-lined around 1.3790-95 and 1.6790-95, respectively. AUD-USD managed a modest pop to a 0.9359 peak before settling just below here. Revised leading and coincidence data out of Japan had little impact. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Apr 21, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

With most of Europe on extended Easter break, and little in the way of U.S. data to move markets, FX trade was very light on Monday in N.Y. The dollar managed modest gains versus the European major currencies, though ranges were very narrow. EUR-USD managed a 1.3787 to 1.3822 band, while USD-JPY was stuck between 102.54 and 102.68. Read more

International Week in Review: Creeping Deflation and Secular Stagnation Edition

By: HaleStewart

This week, I want to depart from my standard method of presenting the big country by country economic numbers and instead focus on one of the biggest problems facing the developed world right now: potential deflation. Because while a period of prolonged deflation might seem like a good thing, it's actually a very dangerous economic event as it can create a "deflationary spiral" where the following facts occur: consumers start to delay purchases believing that prices will at least remain stable for an extended period of time. Read more

Weekly Indicators: firing falls to new low, hiring possibly pauses edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

Monthly data for March reported in the last week was mixed. Housing permits were positive, and starts were positive m/m but negative YoY. Industrial production increased strongly, as did retail sales. NY manufacturing decelerated, but Philly manufacturing accelerated. Read more


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