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XE Market Analysis: Asia - May 20, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was mixed in very light N.Y. dealings on Tuesday, gaining modestly versus the euro, while losing some ground to the yen. EUR-USD spent much of its time under 1.3700, as sellers returned quickly on trips over the figure. USD-JPY held onto 101.20, though continues to look shaky. Read more

The housing market 2: apartment construction is booming

By: New_Deal_democrat

If the constructioin of single family homes has completely stalled for the last 16 months, apartment and other multifamily construction is on a tear. Here's the same graph comparing single family permits with multiunit permits that I started yesterday's post with, showing that literally all of the improvement in homebuilding since then has been in multifamily units of 5 or more, typically apartments and condominiums: In contrast to single family homes, apartment/condo building has completely recovered to its pre-Great Recession level: In fact, as this above graph shows, more multifamily permits were taken out in April than at any point in the last 25 years except for 3 months. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - May 20, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The biggest mover in the Asia and European AM sessions was the AUD, which took a tumble following RBA Debelle's remarks that "lower capital inflows may result in a lower currency," and amid continued weakness in resource commodity prices. AUD-USD logged a two-week low of 0.9257 while AUD-JPY fell to a near two-month trough. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - May 20, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

JPY and AUD weakness was the main theme during pre-European trade in Asia. The yen weakened as stocks followed Wall Street's lead and rose. The Nikkei rose 0.8% as it rebounded from a one-month low, and most other regional bourses were higher, though China's Shanghai Composite was flat, failing to hold onto intraday gains as markets anticipate the prospect of about 100 initial public offerings that are due in the period from June to year-end. Read more

The housing market I: higher interest rates and prices have halted the recovery in single family homes

By: New_Deal_democrat

Based on the increase in interest rates last summer, by now I thought that housing in general would be down about -100,000 units a year. Although the housing market in general has slowed down, that hasn't happened, and the more volatile housing starts number showed a YoY increase of more than 20% YoY in April. When a forecast doesn't pan out as I expect, I try not to argue with the data. Read more

The housing market I: higher interest rates and prices have halted the recovery in single family homes

By: New_Deal_democrat

Based on the increase in interest rates last summer, by now I thought that housing in general would be down about -100,000 units a year. Although the housing market in general has slowed down, that hasn't happened, and the more volatile housing starts number showed a YoY increase of more than 20% YoY in April. When a forecast doesn't pan out as I expect, I try not to argue with the data. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - May 19, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

FX trade was very sluggish in N.Y. on Monday, as a lack of data coupled with steady yields, and marginally higher equities to keep the dollar inside a narrow band. EUR-USD managed a 1.3703 to 1.3734 range, though spent most of its time inside of 1.3715-25. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - May 19, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The USD established was softer versus the JPY and EUR, and was more flat-to-mixed against other currencies. USD-JPY broke below the Mar-3 low to make a three-month low of 101.10. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses were also lower as the yen followed its usual inverse correlation with risk appetite, as weak house price data out of China fed slowdown concerns in Asia's biggest economy. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - May 19, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The yen posted gains during the PM session in Tokyo amid a developing risk aversion theme as weak house price data out of China fed slowdown concerns in Asia's biggest economy. The Nikkei stock index was showing a 0.6% decline in late session, while Australia's ASX 200 closed 1.2% for the worse, while the broad MSCI Asia Pacific index was indicated with a 0.4% decline. Read more

Weekly Indicators: the tax withholding anomaly edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

This monthly data for April included new post-recession highs for housing permits and starts, positive NY and Philly Fed manufacturing readings, and slightly positive retail sales. On the other hand, both producer and consumer inflation ran hot, meaning real retail sales were negative (but March was revised higher), University of Michigan sentiment turned down, and both industrial production and capacity utilization turned down sharply (partly due to a steep decline in utility usage after the unusually severe winter). My weekly report on the high frequency weekly indicators is meant to provide an up-to-this-week snapshot of the economy. Read more

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