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New home sales for January show surprising strength but still deceleration

By: New_Deal_democrat

So, was I surprised by this morning's new home sales number, which was the highest in five years? Yes. There's part of me that thinks the first digit was a mistake! That being said, does it contradict my thesis that higher mortgage rates are causing a housing slowdown? No. The month to month variability in the new home sales report is very volatile among the major housing reports. Read more

USD/JPY Consolidating in Triangle Pattern

By: HaleStewart

Above is a chart of the USD/JPY pair for the last six months. Notice three clear technical events. 1.) The pair rallied from ~97.25 to 105.25 from late October to the end of December. 2.) Traders took profits, sending the pair down to the ~101 level by the end of January. 3.) The pair has been trading in a consolidating triangle pattern since the beginning of February. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Feb 26, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

Another low in the CNY was the main development as the main currencies traded in narrow ranges. EUR-USD mostly flat-lined at familiar levels in the mid-1.37s, having quickly unwound a pop high to 1.3757, and USD-JPY was steady in the mid-to-low 102s. Cable retuned to near net-unchanged levels on the day after dipping in the initial wake of the second-estimate U.K. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Feb 26, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

Another low in the CNY was the main development as the main currencies traded in narrow ranges during the Asian session ahead of the European open. EUR-USD flat-lined at familiar levels in the mid-1.37s, USD-JPY was steady in the mid-to-low 102s, and Cable made time in the upper 1.66s, all remaining comfortably within the previous days ranges. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Feb 25, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was choppy through the session, though ended not very far from where it started. The major European currencies were extremely whippy at mid-morning, as the dollar rallied, then fell back fairly sharply versus the euro, pound and CHF. EUR-USD ran into sellers over 1.3760, and fell back t0 1.3715, as U.S. Read more

Real retail sales portend weak growth, but no downturn

By: New_Deal_democrat

Real retail sales have declined by nearly 1% in the last two months. How concerned should we be? Let's leave aside for purposes of this post speculating on how much of the decline might be due to unusually poor winter weather in most of the US. How serious have similar declines been shown to be in the past? Real retail sales themselves (divided by 2 YoY) are a fairly good harbinger of employment, as shown in this graph of the last 20 years: Thus in the next few months we might expect particularly poor (for this cycle) nonfarm payrolls. Beyond that, real retail sales per capita (i.e., how much are individuals spending vs. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Feb 25, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The USD remained soft, with Cable probing 1.6700 after BoE's McCafferty said that market expectations for a repo rate hike in Q2 2015 were not unreasonable, USD-JPY dipping to the low 102s as European stocks headed south (though the Nikkei managed a 1.4% closing gain), and EUR-USD lifting to the mid-1.37s. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Feb 25, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

Very little direction has been seen among the main currencies during the Asia session so far. EUR-USD flat-lined within around 1.3729-45, USD-JPY did likewise around 102.50, and AUD-USD saw nothing more than a moderate oscillation around 0.9030. Stock markets in Asia rose following a positive close on Wall Street. Read more

Latest EU Inflation Reading Adds More Weight to 1.38 EUR/USD Level

By: HaleStewart

The above chart is from the latest inflation report issued by Eurostat, where they reported the following: Euro area1 annual inflation was 0.8% in January 20142, stable compared to December 2013. A year earlier the rate was 2.0%. Monthly inflation was -1.1% in January 2014. European Union3 annual inflation was 0.9% in January 2014, down from 1.0% in December 2013. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Feb 24, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar posted modest gains overall through the morning, though faded back into the London close. Aside from the Chicago and Dallas Fed indices (which were both weaker than expectations), there was nothing on the U.S. calendar. Equities however, posted big gains, taking the major indices to trend and record highs. Read more

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