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Weekly Indicators: still positive, but more softness as year ends edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

November monthly data reported this past week included personal income and spending, both up, although spending was up more, durable goods orders, up strongly, new home sales, down slightly from its post-recession high last month, and U. Michigan consumer sentiment and outlook, both up. I report on the high frequency weekly indicators because they are an almost simultaneous "nowcast" of the economy, and although they can be noisy, taken together they will show a continuation or turning of a trend before it shows up in the monthly data. Read more

International Week in Review: Holiday Shortened Week Edition

By: HaleStewart

Thanks to the Christmas holiday falling mid-week, we really only have economic data for about three and a half days. Let’s start with the news out of Japan. First, CPI increased 1.5% YOY, a further acceleration of this statistics (which increased 1.1% in the previous YOY reading). Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Dec 27, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar rebounded from its overnight losses, unwinding most of the damage done in London. Trade was very thin, and it didn't take much volume to push EUR-USD back under 1.3770, after it peaked over 1.3890 into the N.Y. open. USD-JPY traded over 105.00, though struggled some over thee figure, while USD-CAD moved over 1.0700 on U.S. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Dec 27, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD spiked sharply from the low 1.37s to 15-month highs near 1.3850, having breached the December high of 1.3812 on route. There didn't appear any specific news or data developments behind the move other than reports of an Asian central bank on the bid in EUR-USD, which has had a magnified impact due to the year-end market conditions. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Dec 27, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

USD-JPY lifted above 105.00 for the first time since 2008, leaving a high of 105.03 before retreating to the 104.70 area following the Tokyo fix. EUR-JPY was a driver during the US-JPY ascent, and the cross also logged a new five-year peak of 144.21, as did GBP-JPY. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Dec 26, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar drifted slightly higher, largely on vaporous volumes. EUR-USD shied away from the 1.3700 level, with standing offers noted at the figure and above. This said, the lack of interest overall should see downside limited to at most 1.3670 near term. Read more

Personal savings and spending show US consumer expansion continuing

By: New_Deal_democrat

Once of the long leading indicators for the US economy that I track is the real personal savings rate. This is the percent of income which is being saved, minus the YoY inflation rate. It serves as a measure of how much or how little people think they need to save vs. Read more

USD/JPY Outlook Still Bullish

By: HaleStewart

Given the BOJ's current stance of monetary loosening, any analysis involving the yen is fairly straightforward. The analysis verses the dollar is that much easier as the Fed has recently announced it will slowly end its quantitative easing program, which is dollar positive. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Dec 26, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

FX trade was nearly non-existent overnight, with most of Europe out for Boxing Day holidays. EUR-USD moved briefly over 1.3700, though has since drifted in the 1.3790s. USD-JPY meanwhile, was flat-lined near 104.75. The only U.S. data release this morning will be weekly jobless claims at 8:30 EST, where we expected a 340k outcome. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Dec 24, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

FX trade was very quiet on Christmas eve in N.Y., with major dollar pairings holding inside of very tight ranges. Stronger durable goods orders, firmer housing prices, and improved new home sales helped sentiment, resulting in a firmer dollar, and yet another modest Wall Street rally. Read more

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