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US Economic Week in Review: Thank God the Economy is On Autopilot Right Now

By: HaleStewart

The autopilot economy continues growing. This week, the BEA released the second estimate for second quarter GDP, which showed solid, broad-based growth. Personal consumption expenditures also rose. Consumer confidence hit a 17-uyear high and new home sales rose to their highest level since the recession. The BEA released their latest estimate of 3Q GDP, which had a 2.3% Y/Y headline number percentage change. Read more

US Bond Market Week in Review: A Variety of Views on Inflation

By: HaleStewart

There is little debate among Fed policy makers about the jobs market; there exists a near-universal consensus that we’re at employment. Inflation, however, is a different story. Several Fed presidents made speeches that week perfectly exemplified the current state of debate. Read more

International Economic Week in Review: More and More Solid News

By: HaleStewart

The OCED released their latest World Economic Outlook, which was largely upbeat. The organization is projecting a 3.5% global growth rate for 2017. While this is below past expansions, it is the highest level in seven years. Low rates are helping to support developed countries while increased Chinese investment is boosting demand from commodity exporting emerging economies. Read more

Weekly Indicators: positive housing slightly outweighs real M2 downgrade to negative edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

November data started out with vehicle sales, the Chicago PMI, and ISM manufacturing indexes all cooling slightly, but still very positive. Consumer confidence improved, driven mainly by a jump in the future expectations component. October data included a new expansion high in new home sales. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Dec 01, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was on a slight upward trajectory in morning N.Y. trade on Friday, though hit the skids hard following the Flynn Russia plea deal, which certainly will keep the White House on its toes. EUR-USD popped to 1.1934 from near 1.1860, after basing at 1.1850 at mid morning, as USD-JPY tanked to 111.41 from 112.80. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Dollar Outlook Negative on Political Uncertainty

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW The Pound remains strong across the board on positive Brexit tone and strong economic data. The Euro is steady as Eurozone factories have had their busiest month in 17 years. The Dollar looks vulnerable as Trump's administration looks set to change again. HIGHLIGHT Manufacturing data has been the focus for this week. Read more

Extreme measures? An updated look at corporate profits vs. stock prices

By: New_Deal_democrat

This is an update of prior posts on this subject. One insight generated by making use of overall leading economic indicators is that, if corporate profits are a long leading indicator, and stock prices a short one, then it stands to reason that corporate profits actually lead, rather than follow, stocks, at least when measured as a quarterly average. Corporate profits have now been reported for Q3 2017. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Dec 01, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The euro, and EUR-JPY in particular, has remain buoyant. EUR-USD edged out a four-day high of 1.1933, while EUR-JPY rallied to a four-month high, at 134.29. The recent run of strong data out of the Eurozone, juxtaposed to uncertainties about the U.S. tax reform bill and Fed tightening projection in 2018, have been keeping EUR-USD underpinned. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Nov 30, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was pressured in morning trade in N.Y. on Thursday, despite solid incoming U.S. data, and a run to record highs on Wall Street, where better prospects for a Senate passage of the tax reform bill buoyed equity market sentiment. The greenback later recovered some ground, leaving EUR-USD near 1.190 from 1.1931 highs, and USD-JPY over 112.50 from a 111.74 base. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Brexit Deal Optimism Sends Sterling To 6-Month Highs

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW Month-end sees volatility kick up a notch. USD under pressure due to Rex Tillerson’s leave. The Euro shrugs off weak inflation data. Australia Dollar is supported by strong economic data. US equity markets hit fresh record highs. HIGHLIGHT The British Pound has rallied for a 3rd straight session today, hitting a 6-month high on a trade-weighted basis as hopes continue to rise over a deal between the UK and the EU. Read more

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