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XE Market Analysis: Asia - Mar 17, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

FX trade took a bit of a breather in N.Y. trade on Friday, with most major dollar pairings consolidating following USD losses seen earlier in the week. Dollar direction was mostly sideways, as witnessed by a near unchanged close in the DXY. Incoming U.S. Read more

XE Market Analysis: French Poll Trips Up Euro

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW Yesterday, ECB board member Ewald Nowotny said the ECB could hike its remuneration of bank deposits. Theresa May rejected calls for a second Scottish independence referendum, saying it’s unfair to ask the Scottish people to decide without knowing the UK/EU Brexit deal. US industrial production fell unexpectedly in January, with output declining 0.1%. New Zealand manufacturing activity jumped with the PMI rising from January’s 52.2 to 55.2 in February. HIGHLIGHT The Euro fell back from its overnight highs just below 1.08 versus the Dollar. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Mar 17, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was heading into the New York interbank open near net unchanged on the day versus the yen, euro and Canadian dollar, while showing moderate losses against sterling and the Australian dollar. The post-Fed announcement rally in global stock markets came to a pause with investors now casting attention on the G20 meeting to get a better handle on the direction of global trading relations, with the Trump administration wanting a renegotiation.[EUR, USD]The euro steady but underpinned in the wake of the Dutch election yesterday and after ECB member Nowotny said late yesterday that the deposit rate may be hiked before the repo rate. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Mar 17, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The euro has remained broadly underpinned in the wake of the kick-down of the anti-EU movement at the Dutch election and after ECB member Nowotny said late yesterday that the deposit rate may be hiked before the repo rate. Nowotny's comments were not intended to signal the timing of a policy tightening, but have been nonetheless taken as a bullish euro cue by markets. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Mar 16, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar largely stayed down in N.Y. on Thursday, as the DXY fell to one-month lows of 100.36, as fallout from the less hawkish than expected FOMC announcement weighed. Incoming U.S. data was better than expected, as housing starts and the Philly Fed index beat forecasts, while jobless claims were in-line with expectations. Read more

XE Market Analysis: British Pound Jumps After Surprise Rate Hike Vote

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% as expected last night, but left growth and rate path forecast unchanged. The Bank of Japan kept rates on hold and said the Japanese economy still needed massive monetary support as inflation is 2% away from its target. The Swiss National Bank also held rates as expected, highlighting political risks in Europe and the U.S. Read more

Real retail sales and the 2017 outlook

By: New_Deal_democrat

As I've said many times, real retail sales is one of my favorite measures of the economy, because it imparts so much information about the broader economy as well. Let's stat with the raw data. In February, both nominal retail sales and consumer inflation rose about +0.1%, which means that real retail sales were flat: The overall rising trend has not been disrupted, which tells us that the economy is still expanding. But real retail sales, with the recent exceptions of the year immediately following a recession (2002, 2010) do a good job forecasting the trend in job growth 3 -6 months later: The increasing trend in YoY% measures of real retail sales that was evident in the last half of 2016 into January forecasts good payroll reports in the first half of this year, and this has been the case in January and February. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Mar 16, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar extended post-Fed announcement gains against some currencies before settling. Gains in stock markets in Asia and Europe made USD-JPY bears think twice, helping the pair lift out of a 16-day low at 112.90 and back to the mid 113s. The euro held firm while the spread between Dutch and German yields narrowed as the anti-EU movement took a knock at the Dutch election. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Mar 16, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar is down 1%-plus following an on-the-fact market response to the Fed's 25 bp rate hike. USD-JPY is down about 1.5% in making lows near 113.00, and EUR-USD is trading in five-month high territory near 1.0750. The dollar slide has been concomitant with a dive in Treasury yields. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Mar 15, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

FX trade was quiet through the morning session N.Y. on Thursday, though the dollar sold off after the FOMC announcement, where rates were raised by 25 basis points, as was widely expected. The statement indicated Fed officials see the Fed Funds rate at a median of 1.40% at the end of 2017, indicating 2 more rate hikes this year. Read more

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