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XE Market Analysis: Asia - Oct 12, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar perked up in morning trade in N.Y. on Thursday, aided by a warmer U.S. PPI outcome. As the session progressed however, the greenback fell back, leaving the DXY at 92.97 lows after opening at 93.05, and peaking at 93.22. EUR-USD based at 1.1829 after the data, before making its way to 1.1850 highs after the London close. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Oct 12, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar posted fresh lows versus the euro and a good many other currencies before settling and coming off those lows. The narrow trade-weighted USD index has seen a low of 92.64, which is the lowest level seen since September 26. Markets were continuing to digest the minutes to the September FOMC meeting, which, while overall maintaining expectations for a 25 bp hike in the funds rate, weakened the conviction for this a tad, with some policymakers expressing concern that low inflation was not "transitory." EUR-USD lifted for a fifth consecutive session, logging a 17-day peak of 1.1880, subsequently settling around 118.50. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Oct 12, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has continued to track lower, this time following the release of the minutes to the September FOMC meeting. While overall maintaining expectations for a 25 bp hike in the funds rate, the minutes weakened the conviction for this a tad, with some policymakers expressing concern that low inflation was not "transitory." The narrow trade-weighted USD index has seen a low of 92.64, which is the lowest level seen since September 26. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Oct 11, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

FX trade was relatively quiet through the N.Y. Wednesday morning session, with no data to drive markets, and a lack of interest to push levels ahead of the FOMC minutes release. The dollar was mixed overall however, seeing EUR-USD top at over two-week highs of 1.1858. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Oct 11, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar is mostly lower, as U.S. stock futures register caution ahead of the FOMC minutes. EUR-USD fell back from highs in the mid 1.18s but at 1.1817 remains clearly above recent lows, after the Catalonian president appeared to back down from declaring independence from Spain, instead "suspending" the result of the separatist vote to give time for dialogue with Madrid. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Oct 11, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The euro has seen a relief bid after the Catalan leader refrained from calling a unilateral spit from Spain, and chose instead to proceed with dialogue. EUR-USD and EUR-CHF climbed to respective two-week highs of 1.1834 and 1.1534, and EUR-JPY to a 10-day high just shy of 133.00. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Oct 10, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was mostly lower in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, as risk-off conditions weighed. EUR-USD topped 1.1825 after the Catalonian president appeared to back down from declaring independence from Spain, instead "suspending" the result of the separatist vote to give time for dialogue with Madrid. Read more

Watching money supply

By: New_Deal_democrat

A few weeks back I noted that there was something of a divergence between financial and non-financial long leading indicators. All of the financial indicators were still positive -- some extremely positive -- while the non-financial indicators (corporate profits, housing, the personal savings rate) were mixed or negative. The one financial indicator I've had my eye on for most of this year as the first likely to turn has been money supply, and in particular real M2. Let's take a look at how they stand. First, here is nominal M1 (weekly): and here is real M1 (monthly through August): Note first of all that because inflation has generally been very somnolent, there is not much difference between the two. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Oct 10, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar posted fresh lows against a number of currencies, before coming off those lows. EUR-USD logged a nine-day high against the dollar at 1.1807. EUR-JPY and other euro crosses also posted higher, before the common currency backed off on news that Catalonia's leader Puigdemont will be holding a press conference at 13:00 CET. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Oct 10, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has continued to trade softer. EUR-USD climbed to a nine-day high of 1.1789, while the greenback touched fresh lows versus sterling, the Australian and Canadian dollars, and other currencies. USD-JPY continued to do its own way, briefly run higher to 112.82 before ebbing back to near net unchanged levels around 112.60-65. Read more

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