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US Economic Week in Review: Strong Retail Sales and Modest Inflationary Pressures

By: HaleStewart

            This week was light on the U.S. economic news front; there were only two releases of import: retail sales and CPI. Read more

Weekly Indicators: seasonality wreaks its usual havoc edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

December data included positive retail sales and muted consumer inflation. Producer prices actually declined slightly. November data included business inventories, which increased slightly at all levels, but were outpaced by strong sales, meaning that the inventory to sales ratio declined to a 2.5 year low. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Sterling Surges on Rumors of Soft Brexit

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW The Euro hit a three year high against the US Dollar in early trade on successful German coalition. The Pound hit its highest level against the Dollar since the Brexit Referendum. Canadian central bank interest rate hike probability hits 86%. HIGHLIGHT The Pound has surged higher today after unconfirmed reports suggested that both the Spanish and Dutch governments were inclined to agree on a soft Brexit. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Jan 12, 2018

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar perked up briefly following warmer U.S. core CPI and solid retail sales figures, though as has been the case for a month, sellers quickly took charge. EUR-USD had fallen to 1.2111 lows after the data, though later vaulted to three-plus year highs of 1.2157. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Jan 12, 2018

By: XE Market Analysis

The euro rallied to fresh highs on news of a breakthrough in coalition talks in Germany, which followed yesterday's ECB minutes, which many interpreted as being hawkish. EUR-USD traded above 1.2700 for the first time since December 2014, and EUR-CHF also forayed into 37-month high territory. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Jan 12, 2018

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has remained on a softening tack, with the narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) extending yesterday's declines from levels around 92.50 to a 91.75 low today,, which matches the four-month low that was posted on January 2. The greenback has logged fresh lows versus the euro, sterling and Australian dollar, among other currencies, in the early part of the Asia-Pacific session after Fed's Dudley saying that the case for gradualist approach to tightening monetary policy remains strong, arguing that the pace of rate hikes could be accelerated if need be. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Jan 11, 2018

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar took an early hit on Thursday in N.Y. trade, as ECB minutes said the Bank could change its guidance in early 2018 if the EU economy continues to expand. Incoming U.S. data missed the mark, weighing further on the USD, as jobless claims were higher than expected, and PPI cooler than forecasts. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Euro Spikes as ECB Signals Guidance Shift

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW ECB minutes spark speculation over QE program. Chinese authorities deny reports on US debt purchases. USD back under pressure after PPI falls. AUD rallies after strong retail sales. CAD weaker on NAFTA concerns. Oil surges to highest since 2014 as OPEC say output cuts will continue. HIGHLIGHT The Euro rallied 1% against the Dollar after the release of the minutes from the ECB's meeting last month signaled they may revise their forward guidance. Read more

A relationship to watch in 2018: hiring leads firing

By: New_Deal_democrat

Perhaps the biggest single thread in my overall business cycle analysis in the past year or two is that we have come to the later part of the cycle, but on the other hand there are no signs of any near-term decline. While the net number of jobs created or lost in the economy (a/k/a nonfarm payrolls) is one of the four important markers of the onset of a recession itself, that number can be decomposed into hiring vs. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Jan 11, 2018

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar is firmer after China rebutted yesterday's Bloomberg story alleging that it was pondering a reduction on U.S. Treasury purchases. USD-JPY broke a run of three consecutive declines, which printed a seven-week low at 111.27 yesterday, in recouping to the upper 111.0s. Read more

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