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OVERVIEW Major currencies are generally quiet, though the Australian Dollar hit a fresh 2-year high versus the US Dollar. U.S. homebuilding rebounded more than expected in June, ending three months of declines. Canadian manufacturing sales rose to a record level in May due to higher sales of motor vehicles and parts. Read more
Last month the housing permits and starts report was poor enough for me to score it a negative. Further, because neither permits nor starts had made new highs since winter, it was sufficient to tip the scales in how I look at the long leading indicators. Today's report for June was improved, enough for me to score it a neutral, but because it is still below winter's levels, I cannot score it a positive, and it does not change my overall long term outlook. Since FRED doesn't have the data up yet, I'll use the Census Bureau site graph and tables. First, here's the graph. Read more
EUR-USD logged an intraday low at 1.1514 before recouping above 1.1530, leaving yesterday's 1.1511 low unchallenged. EUR-JPY, EUR-GBP and other euro crosses saw a similar price action. The move comes ahead of the ECB's policy meeting tomorrow, with markets anticipating a "no change yet in guidance" message from President Draghi, with policymakers likely to take comfort from low inflation. Read more
The Australian dollar continued to rally and logged a fresh 26-month peak against the U.S. buck, at 0.7947. The currency has now risen in eight out of the last nine sessions, making a convincing break of the 0.7700 level on route. An unexpected peppering of hawkishness in the RBA minutes from the early-July policy meeting, released yesterday, which followed solid GDP and trade data out of China, have been underpinning the antipodean currency. Read more
The dollar largely continued its losing ways in N.Y. on Tuesday, with EUR-USD topping at 14-month highs of 1.1585, and staying over 1.1450 through the remainder of the session: USD-JPY fell to three-week lows of 111.69before recovering over 112.10, as Wall Street pared losses. Read more
OVERVIEW Dollar tumbles after Trump’s monumental failure on healthcare. Aussie Dollar storms higher after RBA meeting minutes. UK inflation put the Pound under pressure as CPI slowed unexpectedly. Euro takes advantage of a weaker Dollar and Pound. Read more
The dollar remained on a declining path, concomitant with the pricing out of Fed rate hike potential in the remainder of 2017. Fed fund futures were in late trade yesterday discounting a 44% probability for a rate 25 bp hike before year-end. EUR-USD rallied to a new 14-month high of 1.1564, despite a weaker than forecast German ZEW investor sentiment survey. Read more
Dollar weakness remains the name of the game, which has been concomitant with the pricing out of Fed rate hike potential in the remainder of 2017. Fed fund futures were in late trade yesterday discounting a 44% probability for a rate 25 bp hike before year-end. Read more
Aside from EUR-USD which was roughly flat through the N.Y. session on Monday, the dollar posted modest gains versus major currencies. The euro managed just a 1.1487 to 1.1462 trading band, failing to take out last week's 14-month high, though unable to press much lower into Thursday's ECB meeting. Read more
OVERVIEW Eurozone headline inflation slowed as forecast to 1.3%. Canadian home resales fell 6.7% in June from May. UK house prices stabilized after a drop in June according to property website called Rightmove. The first round of full Brexit negotiations kicks off in Brussels. The key market focus this week will be on the ECB meeting, UK inflation, and retail sales. HIGHLIGHT China's economy grew by 6.9% in the second quarter compared to a year earlier, exceeding forecasts for a 6.8% expansion, keeping the country on course to comfortably meet its 2017 growth target. US DOLLAR The US Dollar index remains at a 10-month low, with U.S. Read more
