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August data was all affected by Harvey, and included declines in both industrial production and retail sales, but an increase in whole business sales and inventories. YoY PPI and CPI both rose. JOLTS for July showed increases in openings, hires, and quits, with a decline in overall discharges. Read more
OVERVIEW Sterling hit its highest level against the Dollar since the Brexit vote. Dollar gives back ground after poor retail sales figures. Risk aversion after missile launch hurts exotic currencies. HIGHLIGHT The Pound looks set for its best week since 2009 across a basket of currencies as markets price in an interest rate hike before the end of the year. Read more
The dollar traded mostly softer, although gained against the yen, and fell sharply in the case against sterling, which rallied strongly following hawkish remarks by a reputationally dovish BoE MPC member. USD-JPY logged a two-month high at 111.32, despite news that North Korea had launched another missile over Japan, achieving a range that would reach Guam. Read more
USD-JPY dove only briefly on news of missile test by North Korea, which was again the Japan vaulting kind, similar to the missile test of a couple weeks back. The pair logged a 109.55 low after dropping about 70 pips amid a bout of safe haven positioning, though subsequently more than recovered, to around 110.60. Read more
The dollar rallied early in the N.Y. session on Thursday, driven by hotter U.S. CPI numbers, and better than expected jobless claims data. Initial gains were largely negated however, as reports that N. Korea was preparing a new ICBM test hit the wires. Read more
OVERVIEW Pound jumps as BoE hold rates, but turns more hawkish as housing survey improves. The US Dollar fails to hold gains after stronger inflation data. The Swiss Franc is weaker despite central bank saying currency less overvalued. The Australian Dollar dips despite very strong jobs data. Japanese Yen strengthens after North Korea threatens to sink Japan and annihilate the US. ECB board member says they need more time before deciding to cut stimulus. Turkish central bank keeps rates on hold. Read more
The dollar traded perkily in Asia, spurred on by apparent fresh momentum behind the White House plans for tax reform. Republican congressional leaders talked up an "outline" on reforms by the week of September 25th, and the White House hosted a bipartisan dinner to keep the heat on both sides to step up on reforms. Read more
For most of this expansion, the Fed has publicly stated that it is using a 2% inflation target. In addition, their models have continually had a “just around the corner” feature, where, despite currently weak PCE measures, higher inflation would occur in the near future. Unfortunately, a historical look at the broad components of their preferred inflation measure belies the Fed’s optimistic projections: Above is a logarithmic graph of the three components of the PCE price index: durable goods prices (in blue), non-durable goods prices (in red) and service prices (in green). Read more
The dollar's post-weekend "relief" recovery ran out of gas today, although the buck still saw a fresh higher versus an underperforming yen. Cable, extending the sharp gains seen after yesterday's perky UK inflation data, also traded softer after wage data came in off expectations, despite a new cycle low in unemployment.[EUR, USD]EUR-USD saw good offers ahead of 1.2000, which consequently pushed the pair back from a high of 1.1995 to near net unchanged levels close to 1.1970. Read more
The dollar rebound rally has lost gas, with EUR-USD edging out a two-day high and the buck trading softer versus sterling, the Australian dollar, among others, although USD-JPY still managed to eke out a 12-day high. The dollar had been shorted into the weekend, when concerns about the impact of Hurricane Irma and fresh ratcheting up in geopolitical tensions were at an apotheosis, and driving the rebound on Monday and Tuesday had largely been an unwinding of this positioning. Read more
, non-durable goods prices (in red) and service prices (in green).&p[images][0]=http://xecommunityassets.s3.amazonaws.com/fredgraph%20%285%29_19.png){kind=link}