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Weekly Indicators: slight improvement in long term outlook edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

November data included another positive employment report, although underemployment measures weakened and wage growth continues to be relatively poor. Other data included a very positive but decelerated ISM services, increased productivity but a decline in unit labor costs, and an increase in sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan due to present conditions, while future expectations declined. Late October data included an increase in wholesale sales and a big decrease in inventories, leading to a decline in the inventory to sales ratio. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Dec 08, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The November jobs report was solid, though the dollar ended up lower than where it started. Some selling into strength was noted, as long USD positions were pared down into the weekend. Still the DY ended at 12-session highs near 94.00. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.1730 after the data, later making its way to 1.1771 highs. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Dec 08, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has traded generally firmer, buoyed by expectations for corporate-friendly tax reform in the U.S. and into the November payrolls report, which is expected to show fresh signs of a tightening labour market. The buck has gained 0.3% versus the euro, logging two-week highs, and advanced by a similar magnitude against the yen, making a four-week high. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Dec 08, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

Risk-on and news of a Brexit deal on divorce terms have provided the mains themes in the main forex markets so far today, a backdrop that has inspire yen underperformance on the one hand and sterling gains on the other. USD-JPY climbed for a third straight day, posting a 24-day high of 113.46. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Dec 07, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was firmer in N.Y. trade on Thursday, taking the DXY to 12-session highs of 93.80 in the process. EUR-USD printed 1.1778 lows into the close, marking four days of lower lows. USD-JPY broke above its 50-day moving average topping at 113.04, as risk-off conditions abated. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Brazilian Real Slumps on Reform Doubts

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW GBP continues to react to Brexit headlines. German industrial output falls more than expected. UK house prices rise more than expected. Canadian Dollar is extending Wednesday’s decline in fading rate hike expectations. The Australian Dollar falls after poor trade data. HIGHLIGHT The Brazilian Real is down almost 2%, its biggest one-day decline in a month since President Michel Temer's administration failed to gather enough support from lawmakers to put a pension overhaul plan to a vote. Read more

Year end 2017 look at the short leading indicators

By: New_Deal_democrat

In his seminal work, in addition to his long leading indicators, Prof. Geoffrey Moore also proposed a series of 11 short leading indicators. These are more variable but typically turn a few months before the economy as a whole. Moore identified them as: S&P 500 stock price index* Average workweek in manufacturing Layoff rate under 5 weeks Initial claims for unemployment insurance* ISM manufacturing vendor performance ISM manufacturing inventory change Journal of Commerce change in commodity prices Change in deflated nonfinancial debt New orders for consumer goods and materials Dun and Bradstreet change in business population Contracts and orders for plant and equipment While a few of these are covered in my "Weekly Indicators" column, many are monthly. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Dec 07, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD tipped to a low of 1.1776, breaching yesterday's low by 3 pips and making this the fifth consecutive session the pair has carved out a fresh low, a correction from last Friday's peak at 1.1940. Supply ahead of the 1.2000 level put a cap on the pairing. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Dec 07, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

Both the yen and the Australian dollar came under pressure today, the former as its safe haven premium unwound some amid a steadying in global stock markets, which were aided upward by a rebound in tech stocks, while the latter was pressured on data showing a sharp drop in Australia's trade surplus. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Dec 06, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

A lower than expected productivity revision weighed on the dollar early on, folowing an in-line ADP jobs report. From there, the greenback caught a mild bid, takiung EUR-USD from 1.1824 higsh to 1.1780 lows. USD-JPY bottomed at 112.11 before later topping at 112.37. Read more

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