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US Bond Market Week in Review: Reality is Not Complying With the Fed's Models

By: HaleStewart

The Phillips Curve is a single-equation empirical model, named after William Phillips, describing a historical inverse relationship between rates of unemployment and corresponding rates of inflation that result within an economy. Stated simply, decreased unemployment, (i.e., increased levels of employment) in an economy will correlate with higher rates of inflation. This relationship is central to most economic models. Read more

US Economic Week in Review: Most Coincidental Indicators Continue to Point to Modest Expansion

By: HaleStewart

This week, the Federal Reserve issued its latest Meeting Minutes, which, as is standard, contained a review of the coincident economic indicators. These provide an excellent “you are here moment,” allowing us to systematically review recent numbers to assess the US economy’s current situation. Read more

Weekly Indicators: Real M2 and long term outlook both downgraded to neutral edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

September data included a big jump in retail sales and inflation, both probably powered by the impact of the hurricanes. All of the measures contained in the JOLTS report declined.Sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan soared, with sentiment as to current conditions at a new record for the Millennium. My usual note: I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good Now-cast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Oct 13, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar headed lower after a minor U.S. CPI miss, indicating markets are focused on the Fed, and its concerns over low inflation. EUR-USD spiked up to 1.1874 highs from under 1.1810, as USD-JPY slid to 111.69 from over 112.25. The dollar subsequently mounted a modest pre-weekend rally, though ended the session down across the board. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Oct 13, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD lifted to the 1.1850 area on a Bloomberg report that the ECB is considering halving asset purchases next year, although with a longer than hitherto expected nine-month extension to the program, which has had an offsetting influence on forex markets. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Oct 13, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has retained a soft tone, settling in the lower 112s versus the yen, near the week's low at 111.99 (which was seen on Tuesday), edging near nine-day lows versus sterling and logging a new nine-day low in the case against the Australian dollar, and drifting back some against the euro. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Oct 12, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar perked up in morning trade in N.Y. on Thursday, aided by a warmer U.S. PPI outcome. As the session progressed however, the greenback fell back, leaving the DXY at 92.97 lows after opening at 93.05, and peaking at 93.22. EUR-USD based at 1.1829 after the data, before making its way to 1.1850 highs after the London close. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Oct 12, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar posted fresh lows versus the euro and a good many other currencies before settling and coming off those lows. The narrow trade-weighted USD index has seen a low of 92.64, which is the lowest level seen since September 26. Markets were continuing to digest the minutes to the September FOMC meeting, which, while overall maintaining expectations for a 25 bp hike in the funds rate, weakened the conviction for this a tad, with some policymakers expressing concern that low inflation was not "transitory." EUR-USD lifted for a fifth consecutive session, logging a 17-day peak of 1.1880, subsequently settling around 118.50. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Oct 12, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar has continued to track lower, this time following the release of the minutes to the September FOMC meeting. While overall maintaining expectations for a 25 bp hike in the funds rate, the minutes weakened the conviction for this a tad, with some policymakers expressing concern that low inflation was not "transitory." The narrow trade-weighted USD index has seen a low of 92.64, which is the lowest level seen since September 26. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Oct 11, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

FX trade was relatively quiet through the N.Y. Wednesday morning session, with no data to drive markets, and a lack of interest to push levels ahead of the FOMC minutes release. The dollar was mixed overall however, seeing EUR-USD top at over two-week highs of 1.1858. Read more

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