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Weekly Indicators: a return to positivity in all frames edition

By: New_Deal_democrat

June data was sparse, but an improvement in both housing permits and starts was enough for the most positive reading of the Index of Leading Indicators in several years. My usual note: I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good Now-cast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Jul 21, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar took another hit on Friday, taking the DXY to 13-month lows of 93.87. U.S. political concerns and generally shaking risk taking levels have weighed. EUR-USD topped 1.1680, a new 23-month high, while USD-JPY sank to one-month lows of 111.01. Read more

Are purchase mortgage applications a housing outlier?

By: New_Deal_democrat

All this year, purchase mortgage applications have been something of an outlier in the housing sector. Permits and starts are flat to lower since the end of last year: So are existing home sales, which are about 90% of the market: Only new home sales seem to be showing a similar trend, as of last month up 9% YoY: Meanwhile, purchase mortgage applications are up 7% YoY (h/t Calculated Risk) In fact, purchase mortgage applications look like they've been on a tear since the end of 2014. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Jul 21, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD clocked a new 23-month high at 1.1677 before tipping back under 1.1650. There appears to be at least some speculation in the interbank market that ECB officials may attempt to walk back some of the hawkish interpretation of markets to yesterday's communication from Draghi, who perhaps didn't envisage such a strong euro rally, which is making trading a little skittish at the highs. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Jul 21, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD logged a three-day low at 1.1504 ahead of the London open as markets prepare for the ECB's policy announcement today, which is likely to signal largely unchanged dovish-leaning guidance while acknowledging economic improvement. EUR-JPY and other euro crosses have been holding up better, however, suggesting that markets are mostly satisfied with their positioning in the common currency. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Jul 20, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar slumped in N.Y trade on Thursday, with action led by the ECB announcement and press conference, which saw EUR-USD rally to near two-year highs of 1.1658. Chief Draghi attired things up as he attempted to downplay timing and details of next policy moves, the upbeat comments on EU economic strength, and the fact that everyone knows tapering is coming, all allowed the euro to rise. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Euro Soars After ECB Announcement and Latest Trump News

By: xemarketanalysis

OVERVIEW The ECB kept monetary policy on hold as expected but unexpectedly kept their guidance unchanged. The Euro hit its highest level since August 2015. UK retail sales were stronger than expected in June, rising 0.6% from May. UK trade minister says the UK could survive without an EU trade deal, reigniting concern over a hard Brexit. South Africa's central bank unexpectedly cut rates by 0.25% The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy on hold, but once again pushed back the timing for achieving its 2% inflation target. Australia's labor market strengthened for a fourth month in June, adding to signs of faster economic activity. Brazil's annual inflation rate fell to just 2.8% in July, its lowest level in 18 years. HIGHLIGHT The Euro surged higher following the announcement from ECB President, Mario Draghi, who said that tapering discussions are likely to happen in the Autumn. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Jul 20, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar traded firmer today, rebounding from intraday weakness in the cases against the pound and Australian dollars. EUR-USD slipped to three-day lows under 1.1500 as markets prepare for the ECB's policy announcement today. EUR-JPY and other euro crosses have been holding up better, however, suggesting that markets are mostly satisfied with their positioning in the common currency. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Jul 20, 2017

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD logged a three-day low at 1.1504 ahead of the London open as markets prepare for the ECB's policy announcement today, which is likely to signal largely unchanged dovish-leaning guidance while acknowledging economic improvement. EUR-JPY and other euro crosses have been holding up better, however, suggesting that markets are mostly satisfied with their positioning in the common currency. Read more

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