Home > XE Currency Blog > XE Market Analysis: North America - May 09, 2014

AD

XE Currency Blog

Topics1263 Posts1283
By XE Market Analysis May 9, 2014 7:56 am
    XE Market Analysis's picture
    XE Market Analysis Posts: 966
    XE Market Analysis: North America - May 09, 2014

    The USD firmed moderately against the EUR and other currencies during both the Asian and European AM sessions. EUR-USD dipped to a new 'post-ECB' low of 1.3804, Cable coattailed EUR-USD, ebbing to a low of 1.6899. USD-JPY firmed made a high of 101.79, having recovered from a dip to sub-101.50 levels during the Tokyo session. AUD-USD receded to a low of just under 0.9350, over 35 pips down on Thursday's London closing level, though recovered to the 0.9360-70 area. The dovish remarks by Draghi yesterday, along with an encouraging jobless claims figure out of U.S., established a bearish bias in EUR-USD, and the both the 50-day moving average at 1.3825 and the May-1 low at 1.3812 have been breached. We would take a weekly close under 1.3850 as a bearish development. .

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD dipped to a fresh 'post-ECB' low of 1.3804 in London. The dovish remarks by Draghi yesterday, along with an encouraging jobless claims figure out of U.S., established a bearish bias in EUR-USD, and the both the 50-day moving average at 1.3825 and the May-1 low at 1.3812 have been breached. We would take a weekly close under 1.3850 as a bearish development.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY firmed to the 101.70-75 area after closing in London around the 101.60, recovering from a dip to sub-101.50 levels in the interim. The pair remains entrenched amid a broad sideways range, roughly contained within 100.00-105.00, which has been in place since early January. This stasis may persist for some time, though technical analysts will be marking this as a potential topping formation after the steep rally from levels around 75.0 that was seen during the second part of last year.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable dipped to a low of 1.6899. A big show of selling interest in Cable into 1.7000, and this seems to have taken the wind out of sterling's sails for now. We remain sterling bullish, however, and we expect to see good demand on dips into next Wednesday's BoE Inflation Report, which should bring upward revision to inflation and growth projections and generally present a less dovish, more hawkish tone following a run of strong data out of the U.K.. The 1.7000 is the key level of the moment, a big psychological level and is reportedly a big option barrier. EUR-GBP might seem a better vehicle for sterling bulls .

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF has consolidated in the upper 1.21s after recovering from the mid-121s earlier in the week, which reflected a correction in the Swiss franc's safe haven premium following Putin's mollifying words of diplomacy with regard to Ukraine. The cycle low of 1.2104 and 1.2100 are key support levels. The threat of SNB intervention into its 1.2000 limit peg is helping to deter franc buying to some extent. SNB's Jordan repeated recently that the central bank remains committed to defending the currency cap.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD extended lower, toward 1.0800, after breaking the Apr-9 three-month low of 1.0858. The pair had been in a consolidation phase since late January following a four-month rally period from sub-0.9700 levels, but the bias has tilted to the downside, toward 1.0700.

    Paste link in email or IM