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By XE Market Analysis December 12, 2014 6:07 am
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    XE Market Analysis: North America - Dec 12, 2014

    The dollar traded lower, seeing a brief bout of selling during the London AM session. Thin liquidity exacerbated the move, and made for some pretty whippy price action. USD-JPY triggered stops through the 118.40-50 area and extending to a low of 118.05, subsequently rebounding toward 118.40. EUR-USD lifted to intraday highs above 1.2450, over half a big figure up on London opening levels, subsequently dipping back to the 1.2430 area. Apparently some EUR-USD shorts established yesterday, after the disappointing TLTRO (on the view that this raises the odds for ECB quantitative easing) and strong U.S. retail sales data, were squeezed. Helping curtail dollar losses is a view in the market that next week's FOMC will be bullish risk event. Elsewhere, EUR-CHF continued to bump along the 1.2010, which is the upper level of the rumoured SNB buffer zone between here and the 1.2000 franc cap.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD lifted to intraday highs above 1.2450, over half a big figure up on London opening levels, subsequently dipping back to the 1.2430 area. Apparently some EUR-USD shorts established yesterday, after the disappointing TLTRO (on the view that this raises the odds for ECB quantitative easing) and strong U.S. retail sales data, have been squeezed. We remain bearish on the view of diverging Eurozone and U.S. economic growth, with the ECB inching closer to implementing QE. We look for an eventual make move on the July 2012 low at 1.2042 and see recent gains as opportunity to establish a short position. Resistance is marked at 1.2495-1.2500.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY triggered stops through the 118.40-50 area and extending to a low of 118.05, subsequently rebounding toward 118.40. Thin liquidity exacerbated the move, and is making for some pretty whippy price action. We see that the overall bias for USD-JPY will remain to the upside. Polls suggest that PM Abe will win this weekend's election, which would give yen-negative "Abenomics" policies a fresh mandate.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable clocked a two-week high at 1.5757 yesterday and has since settled lower. We continue to class Cable as being in a bear trend, which has been persisting since the July cycle high at 1.7192. Key resistance is marked at 1.5825-26. The 1.5541 trend low marks support ahead of 1.5500, while the August 2013 low at 1.5102 should be in the crosshairs of bears.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF has been bumping along the 1.2010 level the upper level of the rumoured SNB buffer zone between here and the 1.2000 franc cap. SNB boss Jordan said yesterday that upward pressure on the franc has "intensified," and the central bank said it will enforce the cap with "utmost determination" and is prepared to take further steps if necessary. 'Further steps' would likely centre on negative interest rates, which SNB member Zurbruegg recently argued would be an effective tool as permanent excess liquidity in the Swiss financial system exceeds 300 billion francs. A Bloomberg survey earlier this week found that more than 60% of respondents believe that the SNB will have to use negative interest rates to maintain the cap in the scenario that the ECB commences quantitative easing.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD logged new major-trend highs aabove 1.1500. We anticipate further advances, with the CAD likely to trend lower on the back of soft oil prices. Support is marked at 1.1500.

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      kumarmatka30 Posts: 4

      Just Checking old records for research and analysis.

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