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By XE Market Analysis April 11, 2014 6:56 am
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    XE Market Analysis: North America - Apr 11, 2014

    The dollar continued to trade on the soft side. EUR-USD rose to a 22-day high of 1.3905, making this the fifth consecutive higher high on the daily chart. The pair subsequently dipped to 1.3881 before rebounding toward 1.3900 once more. EU's Gettinger said that there is no reason for panic over Russian energy supplies. USD-JPY made a three-week low of 101.32 in Tokyo, which help exacerbate Nikkei equity index losses, and then settled around 101.50 after making a 101.87 rebound high. There recover came amid unsubstantiated rumours of BoJ rate checking. Risk appetite remained negative, the selling of tech stocks leading equity markets lower, while PBoC's Yi didn't help by saying that Beijing should be cautious in implementing any further stimulus. AUD-USD was choppy, sinking to 0.9364 in Sydney before rebounding to 0.9425. Economic data today didn't have much bearing.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD rose to a 22-day high of 1.3905, making this the fifth consecutive higher high on the daily chart. The pair subsequently dipped to 1.3881 before rebounding toward 1.3900 once more. EU's Gettinger said that there is no reason for panic over Russian energy supplies. The move largely reflects general dollar heaviness that's been in place since last Friday's U.S. jobs report and which was compounded by Wednesday's FOMC minutes. Additionally, recent ECB-speak has been emphasizing that any further easing by unconventional methods is more of a possibility under consideration than a probability, and this has helped underpin the EUR this week. The 1.3870 level and 1.3876 (Mar-24 high) offer key nearer-term resistance levels.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY has seen saw fairly choppy trade, making a three-week low of 101.32 in Tokyo, which help exacerbate Nikkei equity index losses, and then settling around 101.50 after making a 101.87 rebound high. There rebound came amid unsubstantiated rumours of BoJ rate checking. Bigger picture, USD-JPY's recent sharp turn lower after failing to hold levels above 104.00 has reaffirmed the pair's broad sideways range, roughly contained within 100.00-105.00, which has been in place since early January. This stasis may persist for some time, though technical analysts will be marking this as a potential topping formation after the steep rally from levels around 75.0 that was seen during the second part of last year.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable has settled in the upper 1.67s after a bullish week with data having confirmed robust economic revival. The RICS house price balance for March was much stronger than expected, while official U.K. production data smashed expectations and led to upward tweaks in Q1 GDP forecasts. Last week's March PMI surveys had disappointed relative to market expectations, but the data still points to healthy expansion in the economy, while the subsequent release of the more laggard official production data suggests GDP growth may be a little higher this quarter than previously anticipated. The high in Cable this week stalled a couple of pips shy of the Feb-17 major-trend peak at 1.6822, but we anticipate a break above 1.0700 over the coming period.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF has settled back below 1.2200 again, after making a two-month high of 1.2249 last Friday. The recent up-move reflected an unwinding of the Swiss franc's safe-haven premium, though lower stock markets, persisting geopolitical concerns with Russia, and weak China trade data have reversed this. The cycle low of 1.2104 is a key support, while below 1.2100 the risk of SNB intervention would ratchet up.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD back above 1.0900 after logging an three-month low of 1.0858 on Wednesday. Price action has been bearish over the last week, but we would need this to be reinforced by a weekly close under 1.0900-10. We would advise CAD bulls to exercise some caution, as the Fed vs BoC stance should remain broadly supportive of USD-CAD.

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