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By XE Market Analysis April 17, 2014 3:02 am
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    XE Market Analysis: Europe - Apr 17, 2014

    The USD was mostly lower in Asia following a dovish speech by Fed boss Yellen, though movements were pretty contained. EUR-USD rose to the 1.3840 area from the low 1.38s, but the market lacked the muster for a test of yesterday's peak of 1.3851. Cable punched above its Feb-17 major trend peak at 1.6822 and logged a fresh cycle high of 1.6837. USD-JPY dipped about 35 pips to a low of 101.86, though subsequently settled around the 102.00 level. The Reuters Tankan report found the headline Japan manufacturers index up 7 points, and the non-manufacturers index rising to a record. AUD-USD initially rose in early Sydney trade, but good selling interest was seen form 0.9390 and the pair drifted back to the 0.9355-65 area. The NAB Q1 quarterly business confidence survey dipped to a reading of 6, after 8 in Q4.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD rose to the 1.3840 area from the low 1.38s, but the market lacked the muster for a test of yesterday's peak of 1.3851. The move reflected general USD softness following a dovish speech by Fed boss Yellen. The euro has been weaker against other currencies, such as the yen and the outperforming sterling. We continue to favour the downside in EUR-USD, partly as the ECB is desirous of a weaker euro. Resistance is marked at 1.3850-55, support at 1.3790 and 1.3765.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY dipped about 35 pips to a low of 101.86, though subsequently settled around the 102.00 level. The Reuters Tankan report found the headline Japan manufacturers index up 7 points, and the non-manufacturers index rising to a record. USD-JPY, in the bigger picture, is lacking direction and is amid a broad sideways range, roughly contained within 100.00-105.00, which has been in place since early January. This stasis may persist for some time, though technical analysts will be marking this as a potential topping formation after the steep rally from levels around 75.0 that was seen during the second part of last year.

    [GBP, USD]
    Sterling remains broadly underpinned following Wednesday's stellar labour market report for February and March. Today, Cable punched above its Feb-17 major trend peak at 1.6822 and logged a fresh cycle high of 1.6837. We have been targeting an eventual break above 1.7000. Support is now marked at 1..6800 and 1.6780.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF dipped to a one-month low of 1.2142 on Monday, even though SNB's Jordan said that Swiss inflation remains "very low," and that the franc cap would still be defended. The situation in the Ukraine remains a concern, and this is a supportive factor for the CHF. More generally, over the last week Lower stock markets and weak China trade data have lifted the Swiss currency's safe haven premium. The 1.2200 level has reverted to resistance, while the cycle low of 1.2104 is a key support. Below 1.2100 the risk of SNB intervention would ratchet up.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD has been testing 1.1000 after recovering from the three-month low of 1.0858 that was seen last Wednesday. Price action was bearish over the last week, but the failure to make weekly close under 1.0900-10 was disappointing in this respect. We also would advise CAD bulls to exercise some caution, as the Fed vs BoC stance should remain broadly supportive of USD-CAD.

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