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By XE Market Analysis November 29, 2019 2:39 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - Nov 29, 2019

    FX trade was very light on Friday, with many traders taking the day after Thanksgiving off. There was no data to drive prices, though the Dollar was mostly lower overall. The DXY pulled back from levels last seen on October 15, printing 98.54 early, before easing to 98.23 into the London close. EUR-USD rebounded from trend lows of 1.0980, later peaking at 1.1028. USD-JPY was pressured to 109 40 on risk-off conditions. USD-CAD rallied early as oil prices fell, later pulling back to 1.3278 from 1.2214 highs. Cable recovered to 1.2938 from 1.2887.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD bounced from 1.0980 lows, levels last seen on October 10, touching 1.1028 into the London close. Month-end profit taking was the driver of the modest move higher, though with Europe now closed, and thinly staffed desks in N.Y., activity has dried up significantly. With the Dollar continuing to enjoy an interest rate advantage over the Euro, and the U.S. economy outperforming that of Europe, we expect further EUR-USD downside going forward. The next key support level comes at the October 10 base of 1.0970.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY pulled back from six-month highs of 109.67 seen early in the session, easing to 109.40 as risk-off conditions prevailed. Yields and equities were lower following Trump's signing of the Hong Kong Human Rights bill, which puts the phase one trade agreement in jeopardy. China threatened unspecified "counter measures". Thursday's 109.33 low is the next support level.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable printed highs of 1.2938 in N.Y. on Friday, continuing to find support following the late-Wednesday release of the YouGov poll in the UK, a bellwether poll of 100,000 voters that predicted PM Johnson's party being returned to parliament with a solid working majority of 68 at the general election on 12 December. As we have pointed out, there are a number of reasons to suggest that follow-through buying will be curtailed. The YouGov poll matches the picture being painted by poll trackers, so the outcome shouldn't be a surprise. The poll also found the margins for victory to be less than 5% in 30 of the seats projected to be won by the Conservatives. Another is that the risks the UK devolving will likely ratchet higher in the event that Brexit is delivered. The realities of trying to strike trade deals in a more protectionist world may also start to hit home in the event PM Johnson's party takes the UK out of the EU.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF printed a three-week high of 1.1023 in N.Y. on Friday, with the move coming on the back of a modestly firmer EUR-USD . Recent gains have returned the cross to the upper portion of a broadly sideways range that's been persisting over the last three months.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD chopped between 1.3288 and 1.3305 after the mix of Canada data, which saw Q3 GDP come in at an in-line 1.3%. WTI crude prices fell sharply to $55.02/bbl, down over 5% , which saw USD-CAD rally to four-session highs of 1.3314. Resistance is now at the 1.3316 to 1.3327 area, representing last week's highs. The pairing later fell back to 1.3278 lows on month-end position paring.

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