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By XE Market Analysis November 27, 2019 1:35 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - Nov 27, 2019

    The Dollar advanced early in the N.Y. session on Thursday, supported by a better than expected Q3 GDP revision, and stronger durable orders data. The DXY popped to 98.44 from 98.28 at the open. The Greenback reversed lower following the 10:00 EST round of data, where personal income missed the mark. FX activity slowed to a crawl after the data, with many heading to the exits ahead of Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday. EUR-USD dipped to 1.0992 from early highs of 1.1013, while USD-JPY topped over 109.40 from near 109.00 at the open. USD-CAD was under early pressure, bottoming near 1.3260, later peaking near 1.3290 on lower oil prices. Cable was rangebound between 1.2865 and 1.2892.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD eased to two-week lows of 1.0992, with stronger early round of U.S. data driving the move lower. The pairing had opened the session at 1.1013 highs. Softer income data later saw the modest move reverse, taking the Euro back over 1.1005. A narrow trading band was the rule however, given the proximity to Thanksgiving and month-end on Friday. With the Dollar continuing to enjoy an interest rate advantage over the Euro, and the U.S. economy outperforming that of Europe, we expect further EUR-USD downside going forward. The next key support level comes at the November 14 base of 1.0989.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY held post-data modest gains, hovering near two-week highs of 109.30 early in the session. The pairing is up modestly from the 109.00 levels seen at the close on Tuesday, later finding support as Trump said the phase one trade agreement with China is in its "final throes". Of course, we have heard a deal is imminent many times, but Trump may ultimately agree to reduce tariffs, as China demands, for political reasons, as he touts a trade "victory" as his reelection campaign ramps up in January. The risk-sensitive Yen will continue to pay close attention. USD-JPY later topped over 109.40 into the London close.

    [GBP, USD]
    The Pound remained relatively firm after popping higher in London morning trade on the latest polling showing PM Johnson's Conservative party to be consolidating its lead. Cable peaked at 1.2893 before later steadying inside of 1.2865 and 1.2892. The N.Y. session saw the lows come after stronger U.S. GDP and durables data, later touching highs on disappointing U.S. earnings numbers.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF broke its string of six consecutive days of gains on Monday, pulling back from the two-week highs of 1.1010 highs seen on Friday. A generally weaker Euro was the driver of the modest losses. The cross had been lifted by Brexit news, with opinion polls showing a growing lead for PM Johnson's Conservative party. The two-and-a-half-year low seen in early September at 1.0811 has now swung back out of scope, for now.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD printed four-session lows of 1.3263 in London morning trade, down from 1.3282 intra day highs seen in late Asian hours. The pairing remains negatively correlated to WTI crude prices, which have been on the rise this week, as trade hopes support oil's demand side of the equation. USD-CAD moved briefly under its 200-day moving average at 1.3276, though has continued to trade either side of the level for over a week. Later, WTI crude priced headed lower, bringing USD-CAD to highs near .13290. From here, a move over last week's high of 1.3328 or under the November 22 low of 1.3254 will be needed to shift directional sentiment.

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