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By XE Market Analysis November 26, 2019 2:04 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - Nov 26, 2019

    FX trade was very quiet in N.Y. on Tuesday, with narrow ranges the rule for major Dollar pairings. The Greenback ended up pretty much flat overall, with the DXY inching higher to 98.37 early on, then falling back to 98.27 lows through the afternoon. As has been the case of late, there was little reaction to the incoming U.S. data. Today's slate saw a narrower advance trade deficit, firmer new home sales, and slightly softer consumer confidence. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.1007, later peaking over 1.1020. USD-JPY ranged between 108.92 and 109.14, while USD-CAD eased back to 1.3276 from 1.3314 highs. Cable drifted from 1.2871 to 1.2836. Wednesday's U.S. calendar features the second Q3 GDP report, jobless claims, personal income and PCE, along with durable orders. Activity will dry up after the data, as desks head out early ahead of Thanksgiving on Thursday.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD continued to find buyers into the psych 1.1000 mark, touching 1.1007 lows after the 10:00 EST round of data, then moving back over 1.1020. The pairing printed an eight session low of 1.1004 on Monday, though traders have since been unwilling to test the downside further. The Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, along with month-end on Friday should see activity fade, and EUR-USD consolidate near current levels through the end of the week.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY popped to two-week highs of 109.21 in Asian trade, with the move prompted by reports that top trade negotiators from the U.S. and China spoke via telephone. A statement from China's ministry of commerce said “both sides discussed resolving core issues of common concern, reached consensus on how to resolve related problems (and) agreed to stay in contact over remaining issues for a phase one agreement.” USD-JPY bounced from near 108.90 to the highs after the announcement, with buy-stops reportedly tripped at 109.10. Follow through was limited however, with the pairing later retracing back under 108.90. The pairing spent the better part of the N.Y. session between 109.00 and 109.12.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable printed a fresh intraday low at 1.2836, fully retracing the gains seen Monday. Both yesterday's rally and today's decline have largely been driven by UK political polling data. Politico's poll tracker is showing Labour support at 31%, up 1 point from yesterday, with support for the Tories down a point, to 42%. A major focus will now be on the release of YouGov's MRP poll at 22:00 GMT (17:00 ET) on Wednesday. The poll is widely acclaimed for having accurately portended the outcome of the 2017 general election. This poll also comes with the public having now been able to digest the political manifestos of all the parties, so it will be taken as a being a key prognostication of the election outcome.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF broke its string of six consecutive days of gains on Monday, pulling back from the two-week highs of 1.1010 highs seen on Friday. A generally weaker Euro was the driver of the modest losses. The cross had been lifted by Brexit news, with opinion polls showing a growing lead for PM Johnson's Conservative party. The two-and-a-half-year low seen in early September at 1.0811 has now swung back out of scope, for now.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD remained inside a narrow trading band, idling between 1.3316 and 1.3276 through the session since the previous North American close. Firmer oil prices, along with fairly neutral risk-taking levels saw the pairing drift to the lows after the London close, though further consolidation expected into Thursday's U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, and month-end on Friday. Support remains at the 200-day moving average at 1.3276, with resistance at Monday's high of 1.3319.

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