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By XE Market Analysis November 19, 2019 2:53 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - Nov 19, 2019

    The Dollar was range bound in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, leaving the DXY inside of Monday's trading band. Incoming data was light, and an about as expected housing starts outcome had little impact on the markets. Risk off conditions prevailed, resulting in lower stocks and yields. Trade concerns was the main driver, as China said there would be no deal unless tariffs were rolled back. Trump countered with if there is no deal, tariffs will be raised. EUR-USD was sideways between 1.1072 and 1.1084, while USD-JPY meandered inside of 108.77 and 108.46. USD-CAD rallied from 1.3191 lows to highs over 1.3265 as oil prices slid. Cable eased to 1.2920 from 1.2954.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD remained inside of Monday's trading range, ending its three-day streak of higher daily highs, and plying a narrow 1.1072 to 1.1084 trading band since the N.Y. open. Trade concerns amid fresh Trump threats to raise China tariffs further if no deal is made continue to keep the FX market unsettled, though the failure of EUR-USD to make new highs today may mark the start of a brief consolidation period.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY was on the move lower since the open, bottoming at 108.46, down from 108.77 highs seen earlier. Risk-off conditions drove stocks and yields lower, largely due to the continuing fog of the never-ending trade war. Most recently, China has said no deal, unless tariffs are rolled back. This was countered by Trump, saying no deal, and tariffs will be raised. A break under the Asian low of 108.46 is expected to bring fresh selling into the market, and will bring the 50-day moving average, currently at 108.25 into focus.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable moved lower in N.Y. on Tuesday, after correcting some of the gains seen on Monday. The pairing eased from 1.2954 highs to 1.2920 into the London close. Political campaigning is in full swing in the UK ahead of the 12-December election. The latest update on Politico's poll tracker has support for the Labour Party shifting up a point to 30%, still some way behind PM Johnson's Conservatives, which remain at 41% and well positioned to win the upcoming election and return to Parliament with a working majority.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF was up for a third consecutive day, printing a one-week high at 1.0986. This puts in a little more space from the six-week low seen last Thursday at 1.0863. The cross has been lifted by Brexit news, with opinion polls showing a growing lead for PM Johnson's Conservative party. The two-and-a-half-year low seen in early September at 1.0811 has now swung back out of scope, for now.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD recovered from an early dip to eight-session lows of 1.3190, with sellers stepping in on the break of the London low of 1.3203. The pairing subsequently made its way back over 1.3265. Given the risk-off backdrop seen through the session, largely driven by trade uncertainty, and a sharp drop in oil prices (WTI crude down over 3%), after a report circulated that Russia is not in favor of cutting oil production further when it meets later this month. For now, risk for USD-CAD would appear to be to the upside.

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