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By XE Market Analysis November 15, 2019 1:47 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - Nov 15, 2019

    The Dollar was lower into the weekend in N.Y. trade, taking the DXY to seven-session lows of 97.96. Incoming U.S. data overall missed expectations, which weighed on the USD. Ex-auto retails sales, industrial production, import prices, and the Empire State index were all weaker than consensus forecasts. Wall Street vaulted to new record highs on White House reports that the U.S./China trade deal is in its final stages, while Treasury yields edged higher along with stocks. EUR-USD perked up from 1.1028 lows early, to highs of the week at 1.1055. USD-JPY bottomed at 108.64 following the industrial production data, later rallying to 108.85 on strong equities. USD-CAD fell to 1.3216 lows from opening highs of 1.3246, while Cable peaked at 1.2919, up from 1.2869 lows.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD is going into the weekend at its highs of the week, posting a 1.1055 peak into the London close, bouncing from the near one-month low of 1.0989 seen on Thursday. Speaking in Brussels, ECB chief economist Lane said the ECB doesn't accept that we are at the lower bound - comments that gave another boost to Eurozone bonds, and brought on a bit of Euro selling. EUR-USD pulled back modestly under 1.1045. A N.Y. close over 1.1040, the 50-day moving average should result in further buying at the Asian open on Sunday evening.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY struggled to make gains in early N.Y. trade, as softer U.S. retail sales and production data weighed. The pairing bottomed at 108.64 at mid-morning, then bounced to intra day highs of 108.85. Another rally on Wall Street to new record highs provided support to USD-JPY, which came as White House adviser Kudlow said U.S./China trade talks are in the final stages. Looking ahead, risk taking levels will continue to drive USD-JPY direction, and should a "Phase-One" trade deal be agreed, a test of last week's five-plus month high of 109.49 could be in the cards.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable topped at two-week highs of 1.2918 in N.Y. morning trade, up from opening lows of 1.2869. Political campaigning in the UK continues with just under four-weeks to go until the December-12 general election. Politico's poll tracker shows the Conservatives command 39% support. The Conservatives look well positioned to win the election and return to Parliament with a majority. That in turn implies Brexit being implemented in January.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF has seen some choppy trading in recent sessions, but with an overall downside bias, despite the abatement in no-deal Brexit risk and the recent blast of risk-on positioning in global markets. A generally weak Euro saw the cross hit one-month lows of 1.0863 in Europe, later rallying back to 1.0894 highs in N.Y. on Thursday. Friday saw further gains, with positive trade news, and a generally firmer Euro taking the cross to 1.0885.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD headed lower in North American trade, coming from 1.3252 highs in London, later sliding to 1.3217. The pairing came within 5 points of its 200-day moving average at 1.3275 on Thursday, though the lack of upside follow through today, and the weekend ahead, paring of long USD-CAD positions was a feature through the morning. Next week brings Canada manufacturing and CPI data, which will help the market upgrade BoC sentiment with regards to a rate cut in the future.

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