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By XE Market Analysis November 14, 2017 3:23 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - Nov 14, 2017

    The dollar was pressured again in N.Y. on Tuesday, leaving the DXY at nearly three-week lows of 93.75. EUR-USD led the charge, rallying to 1.1805, a three-week high, while USD-JPY bottomed at 113.32, weighed down by risk-off conditions. USD-CAD printed one-week highs of 1.2773, as WTI crude fell over $1/bbl. Cable meanwhile, recovered from just under 1.3100, to peak at 1.3187. Wednesday's U.S. calendar will be of interest, with key CPI and retail sales data due.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD was on the rise since the N.Y. open, recently topping at a nearly three-week high of 1.1805, and trading above its 50-day moving average, currently at 1.1788, for the first time since October 20. Strong European data has been supportive of late, as the dollar remains wobbly in light of U.S. tax reform uncertainties. The October 26 high of 1.1836 marks the next resistance level.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY bottomed at 113.32 early, subsequently bouncing 113.60 levels. The 20-day moving average at 113.63 marks resistance now, though with U.S. equities again under water, risk for the pairing would appear to remain to the downside. The latest CFTC CoT report revealed a 4-year high for net yen shorts, another indicator that USD-JPY bears may have the upper hand. The next major support level is the 50-day moving average, currently at 112.42.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable rallied after the London close, topping at 1.3187, and up from just under 1.3100 at the open. UK October inflation data showed headline CPI remaining at 3.0%, a five-year high and unchanged from September, but contrary to the median forecast for an uptick to 3.1% y/y. Cable left a low at 1.3074 in the wake of the data. In the bigger view, the pair has been trading in the low 1.30s for over a month, but risks for a downside break are rising given political and Brexit-related uncertainties, with open dissention breaking out in the ranks of the government.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF rallied to near three-week highs of 1.1675 in N.Y. on Tuesday, bringing the 33-month peak seen in late October at 1.1712 is back in view again. The euro firmed broadly on solid data, pushing the cross higher. With the Eurozone gathering growth momentum, and seeming to have conquered political existential threats, we continue to anticipate an eventual return to 1.2000, which is the former trading floor of the SNB.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD made its way to four-session highs of 1.2773, with buyers stepping in on the back of WTI crude's nearly $1.50/bbl drop. Given the overall softer tone for the greenback however, upside USD-CAD potential appears to be limited for now. Resistance is seen at 1.2780-1.2800.

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