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By XE Market Analysis May 19, 2020 3:14 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - May 19, 2020

    The Dollar was fairly steady overall on Tuesday in N.Y., after losing ground Monday, and through much of the overnight session. Hopes for reopening global economies following positive Vaccine news on Monday removed some safe-haven urgency for buying the USD. For data, April housing starts were worse than forecast, but as has been the case of late, markets looked through the data. EUR-USD peaked at 1.0976, later falling to 1.0924 lows. USD-JPY topped at 108.09, before basing at 107.75. USD-CAD made its way under 1.3870 from early highs of 1.3935. GBP-USD meanwhile, rallied over 1.2295 from early lows under 1.2225.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD came off the boil after topping at 12-session highs of 1.0976, later bottoming at 1.0924 into the London close. The pairing has printed higher daily highs and lows for three-days running, as the Dollar's safe-haven status stalls as global economies attempt to reopen from virus quarantines. EUR-USD support comes at the 50-day moving average lat 1.0900, with resistance up at 1.1000, a psych level, then at 1.1017, which marks the 200-day moving average.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY topped at one-month highs of 108.09, up from overnight lows of 107.30. The safe-haven Yen has lost some shine as economies begin to reopen, and as hopes for a vaccine improve following Moderna's reports of promising drug trials. The pairing is above its 50-day moving average, currently at 107.78, which now becomes support, with resistance at 108.27, which represents the 200-day moving average.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable printed one-week highs over 1.2270 after the London close, which extended the rebound from the near two-month low seen on Monday at 1.2075. UK labor market data revealed a massive 856.5k spike in jobless claims in April, reflecting the impact of the lock down, while the figures for March employment cover a period preceding the lock down (which began on March 23rd in the UK), and showed the unemployment rate actually dipping, to a rate of 3.9% from 4.0% in February. We expect the pound's upside to be limited given risk of the UK leaving its post-Brexit membership of the EU's single market at year-end.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF pulled back from the two-month highs of 1.0662 seen on Monday, as risk-off conditions returned. The SNB has successfully been putting a cap on the franc, which has seen EUR-CHF in recent weeks skirt along just above the five-year low that was first seen on March 9th at 1.0505 without breaching it. Weekly sight deposit data out of Switzerland has pointed to the extent of SNB franc selling over the pandemic crisis period, which was most acute in March before basing out as global governments and central banks acted with interventions and stimulus packages.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD printed near three-week lows of 1.3874, with the CAD continuing to find support on the back of strengthening oil prices. WTI crude remains under Monday's two-month high of $33.32, but has retained the $31 handle through the session, a positive for the CAD. Hopes for the reopening of global economies, following positive news on the development of a virus vaccine, have seen safe-haven flows into the USD reverse to a degree, while Treasury yields have moved lower, also weighing on the pairing.

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