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By XE Market Analysis March 31, 2020 2:42 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - Mar 31, 2020

    The Dollar index headed lower in N.Y. on Tuesday, touching 98.99, down from opening highs of 99.93. Month and quarter end related USD selling was reported through the morning session. Incoming data saw better than expected Chicago PMI and consumer confidence prints, though markets continue to look past the data in an environment of rapidly expanding pandemic. Wall Street dipped lower on profit taking, while Treasury yields moved lower. EUR-USD ranged between 1.0927 and 1.1027, settling near its highs, while USD-JPY fell from over 108.70 to lows under 107.50. USD-CAD dropped from near 1.4350 to 1.4070, while Cable advanced from near 1.2350 to 1.2473 highs.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD printed four-session lows of 1.0927 into the open, later rallying to 1.1027 into the London close on short covering backed interest. Dollar demand has eased dramatically this week, following the Fed's bottomless stimulus package, though until the pandemic peaks, we expect EUR-USD to trade on a softer footing. The pairing has stayed below its 200-day moving average since Monday, currently at 1.1080, which remains a good resistance level.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY headed to intra day lows of 107.56, after opening over 108.70. Today marks Japan's fiscal year end, which will likely keep the JPY in chop mode, as rebalancing and repatriation Yen flows are set to continue. The latest USD-JPY downdraft comes into the London close, where sellers have taken control. The start of April can be expected to see USD-JPY return to its negatively correlated relationship to risk taking levels, while Japanese investor redeployment of capital, should initially provide some USD-JPY support.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable opened the N.Y. session near 1.2350, later making its way to 1.2473 highs into the London close. The pound continues to registers as an underperformer on the year-to-date, down by over 7% versus the dollar. We expect the UK currency will remain vulnerable so long as global markets remain apt to risk aversion, or at least unable to sustain rebounds, which might prove to be the case while there remains uncertainty about the duration major economies will remain in a state of lockdown.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF traded on either side of the 1.0600 mark in N.Y. on Tuesday, after hitting one-week lows of 1.0552 on Monday. Safe haven demand for the CHF will likely continue on and off amid heightening concerns about the global economic disruptions being caused by efforts to contain the coronavirus.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD peaked at 1.4349, levels last seen last Wednesday, and up from Monday's close near 1.4170. The pairing later pulled back under 1.4100 in very choppy trade. Canada's Western Canadian Select grade of crude oil currently trades with a $4 handle, prompting production shut-ins. The cost of shipping Canadian oil to refiners now exceeds the price of the oil, according to Bloomberg. The prospects for a quick rebound in oil prices remain bleak, given the COVID-19 backdrop and ramped up Saudi production. As a result, despite today's quarter-end round of CAD repatriation, USD-CAD should remain under pressure going forward.

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