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By XE Market Analysis March 31, 2015 2:47 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - Mar 31, 2015

    The dollar was mixed overall in light FX trade in N.Y. on Tuesday. Month and quarter end positioning had largely run its course, leaving the market rather listless. EUR-USD peaked at 1.0776 before easing back under 1.0730, where it spend most of the session. USD-JPY moved inside a narrow range on either side of 120.00, while USD-CAD faded toward 1.2650 following better Canadian GDP data. On the data calendar, home prices were steady, as consumer confidence and Chicago PMI rose.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD settled into the bottom of its intra day trading band, hovering over 1.0720 in light month-end dealings. Next support comes in at 1.0700, then at 1.0655, the March 20 low. The pairing has remained under its 20-day moving average, currently at 1.0875 since Monday, and given fresh Grexit concerns, after talks between Greece and its creditors were halted without an agreement, euro downside appears to be the riskier direction for now.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY was pushed to 119.78 lows, after peaking at 120.15 in the aftermath of the confidence data. Japanese sellers were again noted from the highs, with exporters and reportedly last minute month-end flows noted. The pairing later crawled back over the figure since then, though failed to hold it into the close.

    [GBP, USD]
    Sterling rallied against both the dollar and euro, with Cable zeroing in on 1.4850 from sub-1.4800 levels and EUR-GBP dipping to nine-day lows under 0.7240, bringing the 20-day moving average at 0.7229 into play. The move seems like a delayed reaction to UK GDP data, which was unexpectedly revised to a 3.0% y/y growth rate from 2.7% in the third and final estimate. We don't reckon sterling gains will be too significant, however, as concerns about the May-7 general election are starting to bite as its not looking like there isn't going to be a clear winner, and particularly as the SNP party in Scotland will likely hold the balance of power in the (likely) event of a hung parliament. Cable resistance is at 1.4900-05 (which encompasses yesterday's high) and 1.4931 (20-day moving average).

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF has established a lower trading range under 1.0500. There have been some analyst notes in circulation highlighting further policy options the SNB has available to try and keep a lid on the franc (including cutting rates deeper into negative territory). The SNB said at its March policy review that the franc is "significantly overvalued and should continue to weaken over time," and that, in a shot across the bows of the market, said it will continue to take account of the franc rate situation in policy decisions and "remain active in the foreign exchange market, as necessary."

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD retreated from two-week highs near 1.2785, falling under 1.2725 after the soft, but better than expected January GDP data. Bids were seen into 1.2700, which held up through much of the morning, though eventually gave way as oil prices reclaimed the $48 handle. USD-CAD made its way to 1.2658 in light afternoon trade.

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