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By XE Market Analysis March 27, 2020 3:07 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - Mar 27, 2020

    The Dollar index fell to near two-week lows in N.Y. on Friday, sliding from 99.80 to 98.51. The USD lost ground to all major currencies, as unwinding of safe-haven Dollar flows continued to reverse the gains seen in thew prior two-weeks. It was risk-off through the session, as COVID-19 cases in the U.S. surpassed China. After rising for three-sessions, Wall Street and Treasury yields pulled back. On the U.S. data front, personal income was better than expected, though the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to levels last seen in October of 2016. The latter did prompt some Dollar selling. EUR-USD ramped up from 1.0953 to 1.11110 highs. USD-JPY hit lows of 107.85, after hitting early highs of 108.90. USD-CAD fell to near 1.3980 despite a surprise BoC rate cut and sharply lower oil prices, while Cable topped 1.2440, up from 1.2180 into the open.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD rallied to near two-week highs of 1.1091, up from early lows of 109.53. Continued unwinding of safe-haven Dollar flows has lifted the pairing from lows under 1.0640 seen Monday, following the Fed's unlimited supply of dollars through FX swap lines with other G7 central banks. Given the Fed's commitment, we look for further EUR-USD gains in the coming sessions.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY traded to eight-session lows of 107.85 in N.Y. on Friday, falling from early highs of 108.90. The pairing fell below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages, which stand at 109.95 and 108.31, respectively. There were reports of heavy Yen repatriation related buying ahead of Japan's fiscal year-end next Tuesday, which exacerbated the USD-JPY move lower. There has been some pressure on the pairing since the open, as risk-off conditions resurfaced.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable rallied to two-week highs of 1.2442 in thin N.Y. afternoon trade on Friday, up from 1.2180 lows into the open. Cable was up by 10 big figures from the 35-year low that was seen last week at 1.1409. About two thirds of this rebound from major-trend lows reflected the broader turn lower the dollar, at the influence of the Fed's policies, while the broad stabilization in global markets in recent days gave the pound a chance to rebound, having underperformed markedly during the recent acute periods of risk aversion.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF eased back to 1.0564, after recovering to over three-week highs of 1.0654 on Thursday, as risk-off conditions returned following three-straight days of equity rallied. Safe haven demand for the CHF will likely continue on and off amid heightening concerns about the global economic disruptions being caused by efforts to contain the coronavirus.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD rallied to 1.4155, after trading near 1.4070 following the unscheduled BoC 50 basis point rate cut. The bank's statement said "This unscheduled rate decision brings the policy rate to its effective lower bound and is intended to provide support to the Canadian financial system and the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic." The BoC said in its statement it would begin buying commercial paper and government of Canada bonds. Later, USD-CAD fell to near two-week lows of 1.3984. The unscheduled rate cut, along with another steep oil selloff and risk-off conditions did not keep the CAD down, largely as the USD remained broadly under pressure. The DXY moved to near two-week lows, and has printed lower daily highs for five-straight sessions.

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