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By XE Market Analysis March 22, 2019 2:42 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - Mar 22, 2019

    The Dollar index largely maintained altitude through the N.Y. session, after spiking higher in Europe following weak EU PMIs, and negative Bund yields, which weighed heavily on EUR-USD. The DXY peaked at six-session highs of 96.81, before meandering between 96.54 and 96.78 through the N.Y. session. EUR-USD touched 1.1274 lows. USD-JPY slid to better than one-month lows of 109.75, reacting to the sharply negative risk backdrop. USD-CAD topped at 1.3426 following weak Canada retail sales and in-line CPI outcomes. Cable topped at 1.3220.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD fell to near two-week lows of 1.1274, slicing through its 50- and 20-day moving averages at 1.1350 and 1.1323, respectively, during the European morning session following weak PMI data. Stronger U.S. housing data helped the Greenback in N.Y. hours, though the risk-off backdrop driven by global growth fears has generally supported the USD (aside from risk-sensitive USD-JPY) since then.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY has given up the 110 handle, dropping to over one-month lows of 109.75 in N.Y. trade. The risk-sensitive pairing has reacted to the sharp Wall Street sell-off today, prompted by fears of global economic slowing, and a slide in U.S. Treasury yields. Support is now at 109.74, the February 11 low, with resistance up at 110.38, representing the 50-day moving average.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable rallied over 1.3220 in N.Y. trade, after recovering from yesterday's 1.3004 low. Prime Minister May is reportedly looking to hold a third vote on her EU Withdrawal Agreement next Tuesday, although it remains unclear if the Speaker of the House of Commons will allow it having ruled that it must be substantially different for it to be voted on again. What is clear is that the EU will not give a last-minute concession on the Irish backstop. If the PM's deal is passed, the UK would have until to May 22 to get the necessary withdrawal legislation done before exiting the EU. At the same time, the Brexit extension will buy time for Parliament to try and take control of the Brexit process. If Parliament succeeded, it would attempt to form a cross-party consensus on a "soft" version of Brexit, which would likely see EU reopen negotiations and possibly pave the way to a longer delay in Brexit.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CF continued its slide, dropping to two-month lows of 1.1212 as the Euro continued to weaken following weak EU PMIs and negative Bund rates. Softening of European incoming data, and the likelihood the ECB will be on hold for the foreseeable future, means the SNB has no where to go now either.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD rallied to two-week highs of 1.3426 from near 1.3400 following the Canada retail sales and CPI outcomes, where the former missed expectations, and the latter was close to forecasts. Domestic USD-CAD buying was rumored earlier from the North American open. The next upside target comes at 1.3440, which was the March 11 high. Elsewhere, WTI crude prices continue to fade lower on global growth concerns, also supportive of USD-CAD.

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