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By XE Market Analysis March 6, 2020 2:08 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - Mar 06, 2020

    The Dollar index fell to a 14-month low of 95.72 in N..Y. trade on Friday. Near-panic conditions prevailed, seeing Treasury yields collapse further, while further Fed rate cuts are priced in. A stronger than expected U.S. February employment provided a modicum of support, though pre-weekend short covering gave the USD a bit of a boost later in the session. EUR-USD topped at 1.1354 up from 1.1225 lows in London USD-JPY hit six-month lows of 104.99, early in the session. USD-CAD bucked the trend, rallying to 1.3439 as oil prices fell to near four-year lows. Cable followed the Euro highs, peaking near 1.3050.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD rallied during the London morning session, though remained fairly steady in N.Y. trade. The pairing topped at eight-month highs of 1.1354 at mid-morning, later falling to 1.12897 before steadying on either side of 1.1300. Crashing Treasury yields, and prospects for further Fed rate cuts have seen the Euro rise from 1.1028 lows seen this past Monday. Further EUR-USD gains appear to be in the cards for the time being, until the markets re-focus on economic fundamentals instead of coronavirus panic.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY printed six-month lows of 104.99 into the n.Y. open, with the combination of plunging Treasury yields, and the Yen's safe haven appeal weighing heavily on the pairing. USD-JPY posted is seventh-straight lower daily low on Friday. Given the continuing spreading of the coronavirus outside of China, risk taking levels look set to remain low in the coming weeks. As a result, USD-JPY is likely to remain on a downward course.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable printed three-week highs of 1.3049 in N.Y. morning trade, taking its cue from a broadly weaker USD. The pairing later settled in on either side of 1.3000. The pound has found a better footing this week after incoming BoE Governor, Andrew Bailey, who will take over from Carney on March 16th. Regarding Brexit, Bailey said, "my strong view is we should do all we can to get a free trade agreement with the EU and not fall back on the WTO." The UK this week started trade negotiations with both the EU and U.S., but markets are pricing-in a risk of the UK leaving the end of the post-Brexit transition period without a new trading deal with the EU and shifting to less favourable WTO trading terms.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF dropped to a fresh five-year low of. 1.0575, reflecting safe haven demand for the Swiss currency as concerns rise about the global economic disruptions being caused by efforts to contain the COVID-19 virus. Switzerland reported its first case of the disease last week. The Swiss franc can be expected to rise further in the coming days, should the virus continue to spread.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD is near highs of the week, trading to 1.3439 as oil prices plunged to levels last seen in August of 2016. Oil prices, combined with a wider trade deficit, the BoC's 50 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, and dovish comments from BoC governor Poloz on Thursday, have supported the pairing. Poloz said the global economy would be "significantly disrupted" by the coronavirus epidemic, which necessitated the deep 50 basis point rate cut seen on Wednesday. Poloz said stabilization of the economy was the driving factor. USD-CAD resistance is now at last week's multi-month high of 1.3464.

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