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By XE Market Analysis June 18, 2018 3:47 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - Jun 18, 2018

    The dollar traded sideways in N.Y. on Monday, with major dollar pairings holding inside of narrow ranges. There was no data to drive prices, though trade war concerns kept Wall Street under pressure. EUR-USD ranged between 1.1595 and 1.1620, while USD-JPY was stuck between 110.38 and 110.53. USD-CAD printed new trend highs of 1.3237, while cable was caught between 1.3230 and 1.3260.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD was fairly steady through the N.Y. session, ultimately finding buyers into the 1.1600 level, though only able to rally to 1.1620 highs. The pairing remains in sell-the-rally mode, following the dovish ECB outcome last week, and political uncertainty in Germany. Support comes in at Friday's low of 1.1543, with resistance at the 20-day moving average of 1.1694.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY has steadied over 110.40 after bottoming at 110.31 overnight. Global trade worries have weighed down equity markets, supportive of the risk-sensitive yen. Fundamentally however, given the opposed policy outlooks for the Fed and BoJ, USD-JPY downside should be limited going forward.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable remained under pressure, finding sellers step in over 1.3250, though managing to hold above overnight lows of 1.3226, as markets anticipate this week's BoE MPC meeting, and the Old Lady's likely acknowledgement of a run of overall softer data releases out of the UK. Brexit-related concerns remain in play, even though the government last week (narrowly) won last week's vote on proposed amendments to the Brexit Bill. The Brexit process is amid a definitive phase, and the government remains divided between "soft" and "hard" Brexit paths.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF dropped to a 10-day low of 1.1525 on Friday and has remained heavy since. The losses followed the ECB's dovish guidance signal of last Thursday, which saw the cross tumble from levels above 1.1600. EUR-CHF is now about midway levels of the range that's been seen over the last three weeks. The ECB's policy stance should ensure that the SNB remains resolutely committed to its ultra-accommodative monetary policy setting in an attempt to ward off, or at least limit, franc gains against the euro.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD remained firm, topping at 1.3201 in early North America, after posting 1.3210, near one-year highs on Friday. The pairing later rallied to new trend highs of 1.3237. Trade worries and weaker oil prices continue to support the pairing. Trade uncertainty is likely to put a floor under USD-CAD going forward, as NAFTA negotiations remain at loggerheads.

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