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By XE Market Analysis June 9, 2014 3:29 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - Jun 09, 2014

    The dollar was mostly firmer in N.Y. trade on Monday, though trading ranges were very narrow. There was no data to drive markets, while Wall Street was moderately higher, along with Treasury yields. EUR-USD opened under 1.3620, and made its way to 1.3683 lows, before trading at 1.3580-90 through the afternoon session. Following the ECB move last week, we expect the euro to grind steadily lower over the coming weeks. USD-JPY rallied from 102.39 lows, to peak just under 102.60. Japanese offers are likely in place from 102.80, which will make a run to 103 more difficult. Elsewhere, cable gave back the 1.68 handle and remained under the figure into the close.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD opened near 1.3620, and made its way to session lows of 1.3583, after grinding through bids into 1.3600 early in the session. A good layer of bids is reportedly at 1.3570, with stops seen underneath. Selling is expected to pick up under 1.3550, which would bring the post-ECB low of 1.3504 into view. Barrier options are seen at 1.3500, and are expected to be defended.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY edged up to just shy of 102.60, matching the previous high in late Asia. Buy-stops were seen at 102.65, the post-Japan GDP revision peak, though Exporter offers are noted from 102.80. Perhaps another slow grind higher is in the cards overnight should risk levels hold up.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable gave back the 1.6800 level in N.Y., though EUR-USD's sell-off returned pressure back onto the pair. Key resistance in Cable is marked at 1.6846 (Friday's peak), support at 1.6792-1.6798 (which encompasses both the 20- and 50-day moving averages). Meanwhile, we favour shorting EUR-GBP given the contrasting ECB and BoE policy footings, targeting 0.8000.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF found a footing after making a one-month low of 1.2166 last week, though still holds below 1.2200. The break of a former uptrend channel support line at 1.2190 opened the way to the mid-1.21s. The cycle low of 1.2104 and 1.2100 are key support levels, but so far have remain unchallenged.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD was steady over 1.0900 through the session, with traders reporting corporate backed bids into the figure. Given the better risk backdrop over the past few sessions, upside for the pairing has been a struggle, though weaker Canadian employment details last Friday have offset. Moves under 1.0890 or over 1.0950 will be needed to shift current range trade mentality.

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