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By XE Market Analysis July 29, 2013 2:16 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - Jul 29, 2013

    FX trade was very lethargic in N.Y. on Monday, with major dollar pairings mired inside very narrow ranges. Focus has shifted to risk events later this week, which include the FOMC, ECB, and BoE meetings, along with the key July U.S. employment report on Friday. Risk appetite was low through the session, with equities underwater from the open. On the data front, pending home sales fell less than expected in June, while the Dallas Fed index pulled back some. Neither had much market impact. EUR-USD ranged between 1.3275 and 1.3235, as USD-JPY managed about a 97.75 to 98.20 band. We look for more market consolidation into Wednesday's FOMC announcement.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD failed to take out last week's high of 1.3297, let alone the key 1.3300 mark, and generally weakened through the U.S. morning session. The pairing posted lows of 1.3252 at mid-morning, before edging back toward 1.3275 into the London close. Afternoon trade saw the euro turn sideways, as consolidation appears to be in progress ahead of risk events this week.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY ran into offers over 98.00, with Japanese exporters seen returning with hedging interest. The pairing peaked at 98.18, and has eased back to 97.75. Support is seen at 97.60-40 now, with larger bids seen at 40. USD-JPY posted its fourth consecutive lower low today in dipping to 97.64. A near-term daily trendline target is sitting at 97.40, while good resistance can be expected over the 98.00 region.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable rose over 1.5410 in London on Monday, reflecting the softer USD tone. Cable holds a bullish consolidation formation and last Friday's high at 1.5417 is the key near-term resistance level. We look for a break of this and a test of last Thursday's one-month peak at 1.5435. Support is pegged at 1.5355-65, a zone that encompasses recent lows and a trend support line, and after touching lows near 1.5330, cable turned back over 1.5345.. The BoE's Monetary Policy Meeting highlights a fairly busy week in the U.K. We expect the BoE will leave the repo rate and QE total unchanged but to announce a formal adoption of forward policy guidance.

    [USD, CHF]
    USD-CHF remains in a bear trend, overall, but there is potential for a test of 0.9370, which marks the positive of the two-week trend resistance line. Trade centered on 0.9300 through a quiet N.Y. session. The Swiss calendar this week is highlighted by the KOF economic barometer, expected to improve to 1.21 (median same) after 1.16 in the previous month. This would signal improving economic momentum over the next six months. The SVME PMI survey for July is expected to show similar improvement, to 52.5 from 51.9. Although the fundamental outlook is improving we don't expect any softening in the SNB's commitment to maintain zero interest rates and its 1.20 limit cap in EUR-CHF.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD was dead in the water, trading between 1.0265 and 1.0285 through the London morning session. In the lead-up to the FOMC and ECB meetings, U.S. and Canadian GDP data, and the U.S. jobs report on Friday, we may see some consolidation early in the trading week. The 1.0250 level remains key, with bids parked at the level, and sell-stops below. On the other side, offers are camped out at 1.0300. The range appears to be set for now. The pairing eased back to 1.0260 in lackluster trade, before settling in over 1.0270.

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