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By XE Market Analysis July 9, 2014 3:02 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - Jul 09, 2014

    Another quiet day in FX Land in N.Y. on Wednesday, with tight ranges again the rule rather than the exception. The greenback lost some ground to the European majors through the morning, though later managed to recoup some ground. EUR-USD traded briefly over 1.3640 from lows under 1.3605, before fading again. There was nothing on the economic calendar, though the minutes to the June FOMC meeting barely caused a wiggle in the FX market. There weren't any indications of a policy change anytime soon as many officials think there's more slack in the labor market than suggested by the unemployment rate. Some were also concerned by soft retail sales, and many were surprised by the weakness in Q1 GDP. Nevertheless, the pace of QE is likely to continue at $10 bln per meeting, but could end in October with a $15 bln reduction.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD peaked at 1.3642, with light stops over 1.3630 (London high) adding to the modest advance. The modest short squeeze appears to have run its course, with the pairing unable to hold the 1.3640 level. Next resistance comes in at 1.3665, representing last Thursday's peak. Support remains at 1.3590. The dollar briefly picked up some ground after the publishing of the FOMC minutes, taking EUR-USD to 1.3611 lows from 1.3625. The modest moves came undone as yields later dipped.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY stumbled slightly after its attempt over 101.70, where talk of Japanese exporter backed selling was heard. The pairing advanced to 101.85 highs after the FOMC minutes, tripping light stops in the process, though as yields slipped back, the dollar inched back into 101.60. Activity overall however, remained relatively light. Support is seen into 101.50.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable briefly tested the waters below 1.7100, before recovering just to the north of this level. A heavier tone was established following a negative house price figure for June, which is likely a sign that the tightening that's been seen in the mortgage market in recent months is starting to impact prices. BNP's positioning monitor showed this week that the market had built up an extreme net long GBP exposure, suggesting scope for correction. Easing U.S. yields following the FOMC minutes however, took cable back over 1.7160 into the N.Y. close.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF breached 1.2150 last week and extended to a 1.2133 three-and-a-half month low as the situations in Iraq and Ukraine continues to underpin the Swiss currency's safe-haven premium. Technically, the break of a former uptrend channel support line at 1.2190 opened the way to the mid-1.21s. The cycle low of 1.2104 and 1.2100 are key support levels, so far remaining unchallenged. We would expect that the threat of SNB intervention into its 1.2000 peg to deter franc buying below 1.2100. SNB's Jordan repeated recently that the central bank remains committed to defending the currency cap.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD continued to move in a narrow trading band, managing 1.0645 to 1.0675 through the North American session. In fact, the pairing has not strayed outside of 1.0621 and 1.0696 over the past eight trading days, and appears to have found some sort of equilibrium for now. Both the U.S. and Canadian economies are trending better, while monetary policy on either side of the border remains accommodative. U.S./Canada rate spreads have been relatively steady as well, with all these factors perhaps resulting in a narrow and comfortable USD-CAD trading range.

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