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By XE Market Analysis February 27, 2020 12:27 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - Feb 27, 2020

    The Dollar index hit three-week lows in N.Y. on Thursday, printing 98.36 from opening levels near 98.70, before heading back over 98.60. Uncertainty over the spread of the coronavirus in the U.S. drove the Dollar lower, and prompted another opening rout on Wall Street, which took the NASDAQ and DJIA into correction territory. Incoming data revealed an in-line GDP revision, better than expected durable orders, and slightly higher jobless claims, though given virus fears, data points are not in the market's area of focus right now. EUR-USD climbed over the 1.1000 mark for the first time since February 6, while USD-JPY tumbled to eight-session lows of 109.69. USD-CAD made sic-month highs of 1.3375, up from 1.3340 at the open, as oil prices fell to 13-month lows. GBP-USD remained soft however, falling from over 1.2915 to near 1.2865.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD is on better than three-week highs, topping at 1.1006, up from near 1.0960 at the open. The dive in Treasury yields to record lows this week, along with concerns the coronavirus may breakout in the U.S., have weighed on the Dollar, while in Europe, reports that Germany is considering stimulus measures if the coronavirus outbreak should hit the economy significantly, should help the Euro at the margins. EUR-USD's next upside target comes at 1.1014, the February 6 high.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY posted an eight-session low of 109.78 in early N.Y. trade, since bouncing to 110.04 highs, though quickly falling back under 110.00 as Wall Street extended opening losses. Major indices were down between 2.5% and 3% after the open. Virus fears remain front and center, and the market's response has been to buy the Yen versus the Dollar since the virus severity picked up late last week. In that time frame, USD-JPY has fallen from 112.22 highs to this morning's 109.78 low. Plunging Treasury yields, along with markets pricing in a 25 basis point Fed rate cut as soon as April, along with expectations for further equity market losses in the coming sessions, should keep downward pressure on USD-JPY. This said, as Wall Street pared some losses Thursday, USD-JPY managed a 110.19 high.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable posted a one-week low at 1.2860 in London morning trade, returning focus on the three-month low seen last week at 1.2849, though the pairing managed to bounce to over 1.2915 in N.Y. on broad Dollar weakness. The publishing of the UK's mandate for negotiating a new trade deal with the EU has been the latest selling catalyst for Sterling. The document sent an uncompromising message, emphasizing that the UK will not sign up to EU rules and regulations, that there will be no extension of the Brexit transition phase beyond the end of 2020, and that preparations to leave the EU's single market and customs union without a new trade deal will commence in June if it is clear that an accord with the Union cannot be reached by then.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF fell to 4 1/2 year lows of 1.0588 earlier in the week, with the safe-haven franc rallying on the back of the spreading coronavirus epidemic. Switzerland reported its first case of the disease earlier in the week. U.S. health officials appear to have upped their concerns over the virus, with a U.S. CDC official saying “Ultimately we expect we will see community spread in the United States. It’s not a question of if this will happen but when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illnesses.” A strong EUR-USD performance on Thursday allowed the cross to make its way to near 1.0670, despite the risk-off backdrop. The Swiss franc can be expected to rise further in the coming days, should the virus continue to spread.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD rallied to near six-month highs of 1.3375, up from 1.3314 in London morning trade. The pairing remains negatively correlated to oil prices, which have been sliding for a week now, largely on coronavirus fears. WTI crude is down 3% in early dealings, basing so far at $47.23. Another round of risk-off has weighed on the CAD this morning as well. The September 3, 2019 high of 1.3384 is the next upside target.

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