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By XE Market Analysis February 13, 2015 2:43 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - Feb 13, 2015

    FX trade was light into the long North American weekend, with major dollar pairings largely remaining inside of narrow ranges. Import/export data had little impact on the dollar, though softer Michigan sentiment weighed, especially on the yen. EUR-USD peaked at 1.1432, after bottoming at 1.1380 at the open. USD-JPY reacted to the sentiment data a little more forcefully, dropping to session lows of 118.59 from highs over 119.05. USD-CAD was pushed lower by better domestic manufacturing data, and firmer oil prices, hitting 1.2422 lows, before bouncing over 1.2480, as stocks and energy faded into the close.

    [EUR, USD]
    The dollar dipped in the aftermath of the softer Michigan sentiment print, taking EUR-USD up 30 points or so, to session highs of 1.1432. Gains didn't last however, with the pairing spending much of the rest of the session easing back into 1.1390. The Eurogroup meeting on Monday will be the next risk event for the euro, where the Greek/EU standoff may or may not begin to head toward resolution.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY remained on shaky ground, though managed to remain above the overnight low of 118.42, basing at 118.59 after the soft U.S. sentiment data. BoJ uncertainty has kept the pairing jittery this week, following a Bloomberg report, quoting anonymous BoJ sources that further stimulus would be counterproductive. Chief Kuroda will have a chance to clarify his intents at next week's policy meeting, which could be key for the yen.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable broke above its 50-day moving average at 1.5344 and the Feb-5 peak at 1.5352 on route to the high of 1.5422. This was the first time Cable traded above the 50-day average since Jul-29 last year. With trade quiet overall though, the pairing was not able to drive higher, as profit taking into the London close took it back under the figure, to lows under 1.5390.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF recovered over 1.0600 area from sub-1.05 levels on news of the agreement on Ukraine, which has been supportive of the euro. This extends the recovery the cross has seen since trading as a low at 1.0414 earlier in the week, which was seen during a bout general euro weakness. SNB's Jordan reaffirmed this week that the central bank is prepared to intervene in EUR-CHF if necessary, that, "We are observing the exchange rate situation as a whole ... If necessary we are active," but, " ... we do not speak about our transactions." He said that the franc remains "clearly overvalued" at around 1.0500, but said refrained to comment on what it considers the preferred franc levels or what it sees as a fair value. An "informed source" of the Tages Anzeiger newspaper last week said that the SNB is initiating a "soft floor" in EUR-CHF at 1.05-1.10.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD fell to 1.2422 lows from 1.2505 following the better Canadian manufacturing data. Higher oil prices weighed as well, as WTI crude has move up over $53/bbl through the morning. Buyers weresaid to be lined up from 20 into 1.2400, and the combination of fading U.S. stocks and fading oil price gains took the pairing back to 1.2480 into the close.

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