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By XE Market Analysis August 15, 2019 2:25 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - Aug 15, 2019

    The Dollar was mostly firmer through the N.Y. session on Thursday, with gains coming on the back of decent U.S. data. Trade angst remains front and center, which has tended to support the USD and JPY this week. EUR-USD faded to two-week lows of 1.1092 before recovering over 1.1115. USD-JPY peaked at 106.34, though later fell into the 105.80 level, as Wall Street turned negative. USD-CAD headed up to 1.3339 as crude prices remain pressured. Cable bucked the trend and rallied to one-week highs of 1.2150 early in the session. Volatility is likely to remain high for now, leaving choppy conditions for the FX market.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD broke to two-week lows of 1.1092 at mid-morning, weighed down by a set of generally better U.S. data, and heightened expectations for ECB easing in September, following recently dismal incoming EU economic data. The market will now look to the 27 month low of 1.1027 seen on August 1. Resistance now is at the 20-day moving average of 1.1158.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY was steady through the N.Y. morning session, ranging between 106.01 and 106.34 since the open. The pairing sits a mid-range for the week so far, and appears to be consolidating today, as risk conditions steady some from the volatility seen since Monday. Trade worries remain however, and further flare -ups of risk-off will likely keep a cap on the risk-sensitive pairing. Indeed, later in the session, as Wall Street turned gains into losses, USD-JPY fell into the 105.80 level. Support remains at 105.05, last week's seven-month low, with resistance at Tuesday's high of 106.98.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable's high was 1.2150, the loftiest level seen in a week, with today set to be the biggest up day the pair has seen since July 18. If the pound makes through to tomorrow's close above 1.2028-30, this would mark this week as the first up week in the last five. On the Brexit front, the scene is set for final showdown between anti-no-deal members of parliament and the pro-no-deal Brexiteers, which include Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his cabinet. The battle will commence on September 3, when parliament reopens after the summer recess.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF fell to fresh trend lows 108.35 in N.Y. on Thursday, as the CHF again showed its safe-haven bona fides in light of a meltdown in risk appetite. Today marked the lowest seen since mid-June of 2017. From here, upside price action may be limited, as the ECB is on course for additional monetary stimulus in September, and the likelihood for further risk aversion in global markets remains high.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD topped at 1.3337, a seven-session high, up from overnight lows of 1.3286 seen in London. WTI crude prices continue to struggle over the $55 mark, generally supportive, while a skittish risk-backdrop has put a floor under the pairing as well. On a closing basis, the 200-day moving average at 1.3303 provides support, with resistance at 1.3345, the near two-month high of June 19.

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