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By XE Market Analysis April 20, 2015 3:14 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - Apr 20, 2015

    FX trade was relatively quiet in N.Y. on Monday, with the dollar meandering largely inside of narrow ranges. There was no data to drive prices, though a rebound on Wall Street following Friday's steep sell-off largely helped USD sentiment. EUR-USD traded about a 50-point range just over 1.0710, as USD-JPY rallied from just under 119.00 to highs over 119.40. USD-CAD traded above last week's lowest levels, though gains were limited by firmer oil prices.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD has remained inside a 1.0712 to 1.0768 trading range through the N.Y. session, with dealers reportedly staying near the sidelines into Friday's Eurogroup meeting on Greece. Draghi's weekend admonition not to short the euro likely had little market impact, and with signs of recovery coming from the EU, and disappointing U.S. data of late, the euro may have the legs to withstand further Greek indigestion.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY made its way to 119.43 highs from N.Y. session lows of 118.97, aided by the improved risk backdrop. The 20-day moving average at 119.57, and the 50-day moving average at 119.48 should provide good resistance for now, especially as the dollar overall remains relatively heavy.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable back below 1.4900 after capping out at a one-month peak of 1.5053. Friday's rally stalled 50-day moving just shy of the 200-day moving average. Initial support is now marked at 1.4812, Thursday's base. Incoming UK data has and should continue to show that growth momentum is building in the economy. The EY Item Club said that the UK recovery has now reached "escape velocity," and that cheap oil and stronger pay growth is setting up the biggest rise in disposable incomes for two decades, which the group estimates will by +3.7% in 2015.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF drifted to 10-week lows under 1.03, the lowest since January 29 despite the latest euro bounce versus the dollar. The SNB will probably be best advised to sit on its hands during the Greek crisis, although the SNB said at its March policy review that the franc is "significantly overvalued and should continue to weaken over time," and that it will continue to take account of the franc rate situation in policy decisions and "remain active in the foreign exchange market, as necessary."

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD moved moderately higher in early North American trade, eunning up to 1.2260, from overnight lows of 1.2192. Lower oil, gold and copper prices have supported, while a move back over the 100-day moving average, currently at 1.2220, was a positive as well. Last Thursday's 1.2271 provides a near-term resistance level, with offers seen in place from 1.2280 to 1.2300.

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