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By XE Market Analysis April 13, 2020 2:56 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - Apr 13, 2020

    The Dollar rallied some overnight in holiday thinned trade, though pulled back in light N.Y. trade on Monday. There was zero data on tap, and focus largely remained on virus developments. Following historical Wall Street gains seen last week, and ahead of Tuesday's earnings season kick-off, equities suffered from a profit taking round of selling. EUR-USD ranged between 1.0895 and 1.0921, settling near the middle of that band. USD-JPY headed steadily from just under 108.00, bottoming late at 107.52. USD-CAD fell to 1.3864 from early highs of 1.3988. Cable made its way from 1.2479, peaking at 1.2532.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD has traded between its 50-day moving average at 1.0968 and 20-day moving average at 1.0893 on an intra day basis, moving between 1.0932 and 1.0895 through the N.Y. morning session. Activity has been light overall, as much of Europe remained on Easter holiday. The pairing has been on a slight uptrend for the past week or so, as Dollar demand has been sated by the Fed's massive dollar swap and stimulus programs.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY fell to eight session lows of 107.79 overnight, down from 108.53 at the Asian open. Risk-off conditions prevailed, weighing on the pairing, though the move lower may have been exacerbated by European holiday thinned markets. Losses were extended in N..Y. seeing USD-JPY bottom near 107.50 in afternoon trade. USD-JPY is below its 200-day moving average at 108.35, after finding support there through much of last week. A close under the level will be taken as a bearish development for the pairing.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable printed a one-month peak at 1.2537 in London mornings hours, before correcting to 1.2475 into the N.Y. open. The pairing rallied back over 1.2530 through the U.S. morning session. Holiday thinned markets saw volatility pick up some as liquidity was lacking. European markets will re-open on Tuesday, likely to see equity markets play catch up to the downside. Cable has tended to correlative positively with risk appetite during the coronavirus crisis era, so a risk-off session Tuesday could see the Pound retrace lower.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF headed to 1.0550 lows in N.Y. on Monday, near the bottom of its two-week range., as risk appetite faded through the session. Safe haven demand for the CHF will likely continue on and off depending on the daily the level of concern about the global economic disruptions being caused by efforts to contain the coronavirus.

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD traded to near one-month lows of 1.3923 overnight, the move coming following the OPEC++ deal to cut global oil production by nearly 10 mln bpd, which briefly saw oil prices head higher. The cuts won't even come close to offsetting the estimated 30 mln bpd drop in demand due to the pandemic, and as a result, WTI crude headed to one-week lows of $22.05. This saw USD-CAD bounce to 1.3985 into the North American open. Later, USD-CAD sell-stops were reportedly hit under the intra day low of 1.3923, which saw follow through selling take the pairing to 1.3864 lows.

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