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By XE Market Analysis April 13, 2015 3:05 pm
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    XE Market Analysis: Asia - Apr 13, 2015

    The dollar started the N.Y. Monday session at its best levels, though from there, it was mostly downhill. EUR-USD based at 1.0521 early, later making its way to 1.0611. Short covering was the main rationale behind the move, though rumbling about a Greek default saw the euro fade into the close. USD-JPY started out near 120.75, though fell into the 119.70 region, reportedly on BoJ comments saying PPP for USD-JPY is around 105.00. Even the beleaguered pound moved higher, reclaiming 1.4680, after opening under 1.4590. USD-CAD meanwhile, moved back under 1.2600, as oil prices stayed on the firm side.

    [EUR, USD]
    EUR-USD climbed off its 1.0521 low early in the session, trading back to 1.0611 highs. Short covering from U.S. names was in vogue this morning, along with noted option related buying. The overnight high of 1.0619 should provide initial resistance, though buy stops are now rumored at 1.0635-40. Later in the session, Greece's PM office denied an earlier FT report that Greece is preparing for debt default after exhausting all options with its creditors, unless it can react a deal by the end of April. The euro pulled back to 1.0560 into the close.

    [USD, JPY]
    USD-JPY slipped briefly under 120.00, finding a floor at 119.71. The pairing was helped lower by a variety of factors, including comments from BoJ's Hamada, who said USD-JPY at 105.00 represents PPP. In addition, EUR-JPY selling, which kicked in on the move under 127.00 pressed the dollar pairing, while sell-stops at 120.00, and easier U.S. yields weighed as well. Good fund bidding interest was reported into the lows however, and the pairing has since returned to 120.42 highs.

    [GBP, USD]
    Cable logged a fresh low at 1.4566 in London, and the pound also saw losses against the euro and yen. N.Y. trade saw things turn around for cable however, as the dollar's general softness allowed GBP-USD to rally back to highs over 1.4680. Ahead of the U.K. elections, sterling trade is liable to remain choppy, though overall we see scope for further losses, especially against the dollar.

    [USD, CHF]
    EUR-CHF has drifted to 10-week lows of 1.0320, the lowest since January 29 amid the latest bout of euro underperformance. While this is the case, the SNB will probably be best advised to sit on its hands, although the SNB said at its March policy review that the franc is "significantly overvalued and should continue to weaken over time," and that it will continue to take account of the franc rate situation in policy decisions and "remain active in the foreign exchange market, as necessary."

    [USD, CAD]
    USD-CAD topped out at 1.2646 into the North American open, and has since eased back under the figure, touching 1.2562 lows. WTI crude prices traded briefly over $53 again, coinciding with the CAD's best intra day levels, though has since moved back under $51.80, allowing USD-CAD to trade over 1.2600 again. The 20-day moving average at 1.2571 will be important as support on a closing basis, while resistance is seen at 1.2666, Friday's peak.

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