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Above is a chart of the year over year percentage change in personal consumption expenditures (PCEs; blue) and retail sales (red). The retail sales numbers are typcially presented in monthly fashion. The above chart uses an average of each three month period to provide a valid comparison. Read more
The USD has been encountering a stronger bid following the successful passage of the bipartisan budget deal in the House of Reps, firming up the odds for the Fed announce QE tapering at next week's FOMC. The has been reflected by yield differentials, with the yields of 2- and 10-year U.S. Read more
The JPY dove to fresh major-trend lows, with USD-JPY leading the charge as yield differentials and the associated contrasting stances of the Fed and BoJ underpin. News that U.S. budget deal sailed through the House vote with ease boosted this trade, firming up the odds of the Fed opting for a tapering announcement at next week's FOMC meeting (though we still don't think these odds are more than 50-50). Read more
The dollar settled in at or very near session highs versus all major currencies in N.Y. trade on Thursday. This saw the USD index rally back over 80.20 from session lows of 79.85. EUR-USD found support around 1.3750, after failing over 1.3800 in London. Read more
Above is a chart of the USD/CAD, which has been in a slow, general uptrend for the last year. Notice the trend line that connects the lows of mid-January, early May, mid-Septermber and mid-October. There is also a sharper upward trend that connects the recent lows of mid-September and late-October (which prices have recently broken. Read more
Reports that the U.S. bipartisan budget deal is set to pass the key House vote later today saw equity markets fall and imparted a degree of risk-off positioning in FX markets as the perceived odds of the Fed opting for a tapering announcement at next week's FOMC meeting firmed up a notch. Read more
USD-JPY recovered to a peak of 102.70 from the 102.15 low seen in New York yesterday after the London close. EUR-JPY is about 40 pips up on its London closing level, around 141.55. It's Japanese policymaker policy to have a weaker currency, and we expect the yen will see fresh trend lows in time. Read more
The dollar again was modestly weaker in N.Y. trade on Wednesday, keeping the USD index marginally under the 80.00 mark for most of the session. EUR-USD ground its way through sellers into the 1.3800 level, eventually touching 1.3810. USD-JPY found support near 102.20, while cable stumbled to 1.6340 lows before inching back to 1.6400. Read more
USD-JPY dropped to a fresh correction low of 102.40 in early London trade, reflective of a broader move in the yen, with EUR-JPY and other yen crosses seeing a similar action. EUR-USD is near unchanged versus New York closing levels of yesterday, hovering around 1.3760-70. Read more
For the last few months, in my "Weekly Indicators" column I've expressed some level of concern about the "long leading indicators," i.e., those measures which usually turn up or down a year or more before the economy as a whole does. At the same time, I have stressed that most of them remain positive. Read more
 and retail sales (red). The retail sales numbers are typcially presented in monthly fashion. The above chart uses an average of each three month period to provide a valid comparison.&p[images][0]=http://xecommunityassets.s3.amazonaws.com/fredgraph1_0.png){kind=link}
