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EUR-USD The main dollar pairings have been languid ahead of tomorrow's FOMC announcement, which of course makes some sense as it's about a 50-50 call on whether the Fed opts to start tapering QE assets. EUR-USD tried to rally following a very strong German ZEW outcome, but managed no more than a 10 pip gain that stalled short of the day's high at 1.3782, before settling to 1.3760. Read more
Not much movement has been seen in pre-European Asia trade. USD-JPY at 102.96 bid is within a few pips of yesterday's London closing level, having posted a sub-20 pip range in the interim. A rebound in Asia stock markets, with the MSCI Asia Pacific lifting 0.5% from three-month lows, failed to inspire selling of the fund-currency yen or buying of the asset-currency Australian dollar. Read more
This week is the last full week of 2013. So, it seems appropriate to look back on the year that was to see what the big international news stories of the year were. The following are presented in no order of importance. And, please realize that people can disagree on these types of things. Read more
FX trade was very slow in N.Y. on Monday, as holiday conditions set in in earnest, and traders remained cautious ahead of Wednesday's FOMC announcement. The jury remains split on tapering for this meeting, so either decision could have some significant impact on the greenback. Read more
The US economy, ex-employment, has now completely recovered from the 2008-09 "Great Recession." Industrial production, probably the pre-eminent indicator used by the NBER to mark recessions, in November for the first time exceeded its pre-recession peak, by increasing a huge 1.1%. Here's the graph, normed to 100 at the 2007 peak: Two other coincident indicators of recession, real retail sales and real personal income, already exceeded the 2007 peak. Read more
EUR-USD spiked to the upper 1.37s from the early London session low of 1.3736. Good buying was reported in EUR-JPY, and EUR-GBP and EUR-AUD also lifted, the former to a one-month peak of 0.8455. There didn't appear a news or data development that might have prompted the move (Eurozone PMI figures were mixed), though there was talk of bullish research notes in circulation, based on the view that Eurozone banks will need to bolster regulatory capital reserves ahead of the ECB's taking over of bank supervision in November 2014. Read more
A correction in USD-JPY provided the main theme in pre-Europe Asian trade, while dollar weakness spilled over into EUR-USD, which traded moderately high versus Friday's London closing levels. USD-JPY opened at 103.25 and then decided to continue the slide from Friday's multi-year high of 103.92, triggering stops through the 103.00 and 102.90 area. Read more
Let’s start the weekly international round-up with the latest from China –which just keeps on growing and growing. The latest inflation reading printed at 3% YOY. While this is a bit high, it’s hardly at dangerous levels. And the PBOC has demonstrated a remarkable willingness to act, meaning that should we see the level spike for several months, some type of action would probably be in the cars. Read more
November monthly data reported in this past week included a very strong retail sales report, up +0.7%, and a small decline in the producer price index. October retail sales were also revised higher. I report on the high frequency weekly indicators because they are an almost simultaneous "nowcast" of the economy, and although they can be noisy, taken together they will show a continuation or turning of a trend before it shows up in the monthly data. Read more
The dollar settled in at or very near session highs versus all major currencies in N.Y. trade on Thursday. This saw the USD index rally back over 80.20 from session lows of 79.85. EUR-USD found support around 1.3750, after failing over 1.3800 in London. Read more
