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Is It Time To Become Optimistic About the EU?

By: HaleStewart

The EU is an economic and investing conundrum right now. Unemployment is still very high; while it appears to be cresting, there is little indicating we're seeing a meaningful reduction in this key metric. Employment is still very weak and loan growth is still negative. Read more

Corporate profits as a leading indicator for stock prices an update

By: New_Deal_democrat

Last November I wrote [http://community.xe.com/forum/xe-market-analysis/yoy-reported-corporate-profits-leading-indicator-stock-prices] that, since corporate profits are a long leading indicator, and stock prices a shorter leading indicator, then contrary to received wisdom, reported corporate profits ought to bear some leading relationship to stock prices, and indeed they do: "[C]orporate profits tend to turn about 12 months before stock prices. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Apr 02, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

Trade has been characterized by a EUR dip following an MNI report of an ECB source, along with NATO warning that Russia remains a threat to the Ukraine. The JPY had also posted fresh lows against the USD and most other currencies during the Tokyo session before subsequently steadying during the European morning. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Apr 01, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was mixed in fairly quiet N.Y. trade on Tuesday, as EUR-USD briefly reclaimed the 1.38 handle, and USD-JPY ran up to highs of 103.70. USD-CAD moved under 1.1015, though solid support is expected at 1.1000. Cable meanwhile, recovered from lows under 1.6620. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Apr 01, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The USD traded moderately firmer against the JPY and most currencies, though softer against the EUR following a decent set of data out of the Eurozone. Markets have now all but priced out any chance of an immediate ECB easing, had this was reflected by a narrowing in U.S. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Apr 01, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

No big movements among the main currencies today. China's official manufacturing PMI for March came in fractionally above expectations at 50.3 while the HSBC-Markit version came in fractionally below expectations at 48.0. Japan's Tankan report on business sentiment came in shy of expectations, with sentiment among large manufacturers at 17 in March, up from 16 in December but below the consensus forecast for 20. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Mar 31, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

FX Trade was relatively quiet to end the quarter in N.Y. on Monday, with the dollar mostly lower overall. Equities surged on month-end window dressing, while Treasury yields plied fairly narrow ranges. EUR-USD found resistance over 1.3800, and into the ECB meeting, and we look for a top near the figure, as traders price in some ECB easing. Read more

Yellen's Speech Indicates Far Broader Employment Analysis Is Needed

By: HaleStewart

This Friday is NFP day; statistics for US payrolls will be released at 8:30 AM EST. The market will spend the entire day parsing the data. However, the headline unemployment number will -- as usual -- be the main story. I have grown to loathe this data release, largely because of the obsession with the unemployment rate at the expense of a far deeper reading of employment data. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Mar 31, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The principle move was a EUR-JPY rally that reflected mostly across-the-board yen weakness and a lesser degree of general euro firmness. This brought associated gains in USD-JPY and EUR-USD, leaving the USD on a mixed footing versus its major counterparts. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Mar 31, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

Lots of news but little market movement among the dollar majors today in pre-London Asian trade. EUR-USD has been hovering around the 1.3750 area, and USD-JPY has been flat-lining around 102.80-90. The AUD dipped to its lowest level against the USD since last Wednesday, making a low of 0.9218, which is about 30 pips down on last week's New York closing level. Read more


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