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XE Market Analysis: North America - May 02, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar was firmer as markets discount upside risk to today's payrolls report, with the whisper number pegging a 250k rise versus the median for 210k. EUR-USD fell to a 1.3852 low, breaching Thursday's low on route, though this is still barely more than 40 pips below yesterday's high. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - May 02, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The USD firmed slightly in quiet trade in the pre-European open Asia session, with staffing levels depleted by people taking the 'bridge weekend' vacation break following yesterday's May Day holiday. Market participants were also sitting on their hands ahead of the U.S. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - May 01, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar firmed marginally versus the European majors, and lost some ground to the yen in N.Y. trade on Thursday. Economic data wasn't overly constructive for sentiment, as jobless claims were higher than forecast, and construction spending missed the mark as well. Read more

Patterns of consumption in March rebounded from near-recessionary winter levels

By: New_Deal_democrat

This morning's personal income and spending report for March serve as a nice juxtaposition to yesterday's GDP report. One of the relationships I track is real retail sales vs. real PCE's. In virtually every business cycle since World War 2, retail sales started out stronger than PCE's, but then faded later on and continuing into the next recession. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - May 01, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

Cable logged fresh major-trend highs while and a 20 pip lift in EUR-USD was sufficient to yield a three-week high in thin trade. Many European nations are off for May-1 public holidays, and several Asia centres were also closed for business. Cable rallied to 1.6923 in the wake of stellar manufacturing PMI data out of the U.K., though this was offset by sub-expectations mortgage lending numbers and a particularly disappointing business lending decline, which will cause much chagrin for U.K. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - May 01, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

Narrow ranges prevailed in pre-Europe Asia trade, with a good number of centres closed amid Labour Day public holidays, as will be the case in Europe today. This left the dollar to consolidate the losses it saw after the U.S. GDP miss yesterday. The Fed didn't deliver any surprises after its FOMC meeting, announcing another $10 bln taper of QE purchases, to $45 bln while remarking that the economy is growing and will bounce back after a weather-related poor first quarter. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Apr 30, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar got a modest bump up following the better ADP employment report, though gains quickly turned to losses after the near-zero GDP outcome. EUR-USD had been on the rise into the N.Y. open, and eventually made its way to 1.3876 highs, very close to highest levels seen earlier this week. Read more

Decline in real residential investment a yellow flag for possible US economic downturn in 2015

By: New_Deal_democrat

Back in 2007, Prof. Edward Leamer of UCLA presented a paper at the Jackson Hole symposium called <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w13428">Housing IS the business cycle</a>. In it he pointed out that, on average, since World War 2, real residential fixed investment as a share of GDP has typically started to decline about 5 quarters before the onset of a recession, and served as the first warning of the downturn in the economy. So it is not a minor datapoint that in the first quarter of 2014, for the second quarter in a row, real residential fixed investment declined both as a share of GDP, and also absolutely. Here is a graph of real private fixed residential investment as a share of GDP: And here is a graph of the absolute value of private residential fixed investment: This is the second long leading indicator to roll over (interest rates on corporate bonds made a bottom in July 2012). Read more

1Q US GDP: Blame the Weather

By: HaleStewart

Let's begin with this statement from Fed Chair Yellen on February 27 Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Apr 30, 2014

By: XE Market Analysis

The euro rebounded from sub-1.38 lows, the yen saw some chop in the wake of the triple header BoJ policy announcement, outlook and press conference, while most other currencies held in comparatively narrow ranges. EUR-USD rebounded from a 1.3774 nadir, seen just ahead of the Eurozone CPI release, to the 1.3815-20 area. Read more


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