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Rising interest rates will negatively impact US housing in 2014

By: New_Deal_democrat

One disagrees with Bill McBride a/k/a Calculated Risk a/k/a The Nicest Blogger On The Internet at one's peril, especially when it comes to housing, but that is what I am about to do. Bill (link: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/12/update-looking-for-stronger-economic.html) has written that he is looking for stronger economic growth in 2014 in part because he expects that "the housing recovery should continue." Unless the interest rate spike that began in April 2013 abates, I disagree that the housing recovery will continue, and that will have a negative effect on growth rates by the end of 2014. Below I have plotted the YoY changes in housing permits vs. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Dec 19, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

The USD recovered from an initial dip and rallied pretty much across the board in the wake of the Fed's announcement of a $10 bln QE taper. The U.S. currency traded like an 'asset currency' as it rebounded from an initial dive in sympathy with Wall Street as the Fed signalled a slightly more dovish forward guidance to offset the taper, with the exceptionally low stance to remain in place until unemployment falls well below 6.5%. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Dec 18, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

The greenback was mixed in very light pre-FOMC trade, losing some ground to the euro and pound, while posting modest gains against the yen and CAD. Stronger November housing starts raised some eyebrows, and added another positive data point into the Fed announcement. Read more

Latest UK Employment News is Pound Bullish

By: HaleStewart

Earlier today, the Office of National Statistics reported that UK unemployment dropped .2%: Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Dec 18, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

A rally in sterling following an unexpected dive in U.K. unemployment broke up otherwise subdued pre-FOMC trade in forex markets. EUR-USD remains at familiar levels in the mid-1.37s, and USD-JPY continued to feel gravitational pull around 103.00. The market lacks impetus into the FOMC announcement as the odds of the Fed declaring the commencement of tapering are about the same as a coin flip. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Dec 18, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD remains at familiar levels in the upper 1.37s after subdued pre-Europe, pre-FOMC announcement Asian trade, with both upside and downside flurries yesterday having proved short-lived . USD-JPY, meanwhile, has continued to orbit the 103.00 level, recovering in Tokyo after orbiting to a distance of 102.50 in New York yesterday. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Asia - Dec 17, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

The dollar started out on a stronger footing, though its gains faded through the session. USD-JPY was softer from the open, slipping to support into 102.50, as risk aversion set in in front of the FOMC. EUR-USD eased to lows under 1.3725, though subsequently recovered over 1.3770. Read more

XE Market Analysis: North America - Dec 17, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

EUR-USD The main dollar pairings have been languid ahead of tomorrow's FOMC announcement, which of course makes some sense as it's about a 50-50 call on whether the Fed opts to start tapering QE assets. EUR-USD tried to rally following a very strong German ZEW outcome, but managed no more than a 10 pip gain that stalled short of the day's high at 1.3782, before settling to 1.3760. Read more

XE Market Analysis: Europe - Dec 17, 2013

By: XE Market Analysis

Not much movement has been seen in pre-European Asia trade. USD-JPY at 102.96 bid is within a few pips of yesterday's London closing level, having posted a sub-20 pip range in the interim. A rebound in Asia stock markets, with the MSCI Asia Pacific lifting 0.5% from three-month lows, failed to inspire selling of the fund-currency yen or buying of the asset-currency Australian dollar. Read more

A Look Back At the Big International Economic Stories of 2013

By: HaleStewart

This week is the last full week of 2013. So, it seems appropriate to look back on the year that was to see what the big international news stories of the year were. The following are presented in no order of importance. And, please realize that people can disagree on these types of things. Read more


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