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FX trade was very quiet in N.Y. on Tuesday, though the dollar managed modest gains versus the yen. EUR- USD was a slightly different story, and while ranges were kept inside familiar bands, the euro managed to move a bit higher. Short covering into Thursday's ECB meeting appeared to be a driver, though EUR-USD stopped dead at Friday's 1.3650 peak. Read more
Back in 2012, I noted that early in economic expansions, YoY real retail sales growth far outstrips YoY PCE growth. As the economy wanes into contraction, YoY real retail sales grow less and ultimately contract more than YoY PCE's. You can see that by noting that retail sales minus PCE's are always negative BEFORE the economy ever tips into recession. Read more
Today, Eurostat released unemployment and inflation numbers for the EU region. Neither held promising news for the area and both add further pressure on the ECB to act by implementing extraordinary central bank measures. First, the unemployment rate did drop from 11.8% to 11.7%. Read more
The USD looks set to open in New York not far from Monday's closing levels. The euro was left modestly higher after the flash estimate of May Eurozone HICP came in slightly above expectations at 0.5% y/y, although this is still two percentage points down from April while core inflation fell to 0.7% from 1.0%. Read more
The dollar is firmer versus Monday's London closing levels after New York PM gains were consolidated in Asia. EUR-USD logged a low of 1.3588 after the London closed yesterday, two pips shy of last Thursday's three-month low, since recovering just above 1.3600. Read more
The dollar moved to N.Y. session highs versus all the majors in afternoon trade on Monday, with EUR-USD touching 1.3590, and USD-JPY peaking at 102.43. Cable fell back toward London lows of 1.6725, easing into 1.6731, while USD-CAD broke through the 1.09 mark, after coming up just short through the session, peaking at 1.0910. Read more
The dollar firmed up moderately against most currencies, recovering from some of the losses that were seen late last week. Weak German state CPI data and a revision lower in Eurozone manufacturing PMI for May saw EUR-USD dip over 30 pips to levels back under 1.3600, but the market left last Thursday's 1.3586 low untroubled. Read more
The dollar firmed up moderately against most currencies, recovering from some of the losses that were seen late last week. A risk-on session, fuelled by an above-expectations outcome in China's purchasing managers index for May, which lifted to 50.8, the best level since December, helped underpin USD-JPY as the yen followed its usual inverse correlation with stock markets. Read more
Both the euro and the pound have been rallying against the dollar since the beginning of November. Traders have been buying the pound in anticipation the BOE would raise rates before the Fed while the euro has been a strong beneficiary of Draghi's statement that he would do "whatever it takes" to defend the currency (and the EU). Read more
Monthly data for May started with a positive Chicago PMI, and April data included positive durable goods. House prices continued to rise. Pending home sales rose slightly. Conference Board and Michigan sentiment were both neutral. Personal income rose, but personal spending declined, meaning that the personal savings rate rose. Read more
